Is Wisconsin's GOP Senate Primary Now a Two-Man Race?

The GOP primary for US Senate looks like a two-man race between Eric Hovde and former Governor Tommy Thompson, according to two polls released this week.

The Marquette University Law School poll results still have Thompson in the lead with 35 percent to Hovde's 23 percent. In June, MU had Thompson at 34 to Hovde's 14 percent, respectivey. Mark Neumann comes in at 10 percent, down from 16 percent, and Scott Fitzgerald is down from 10 to 6 percent.

Survey results were released Wednesday during a monthly edition of "On the Issues" with Mike Gousha and Professor Charles Franklin.

"New July numbers seem to suggest Hovde’s campaign has been more active and getting his name out more, which seems to have made a difference," said Franklin.

The poll was conducted from July 5 - 8, 2012 with 1,000 registered voters and 810 likely voters who will cast ballots in November. 432 respondents are likely Republican voters for the August primary.

According to a survey from Public Policy Polling released Monday, Hovde leads Thompson, 31 to 29 percent. Against Democrat Tammy Baldwin, Hovde also leads, 45 to 44 percent. The margin of error for PPP is 3 percent amongst 1,057 likely voters. and 4.1 percent for 564 likely Republican primary voters.

After PPP released their survey, Thompson's campaign responded with a statement blasting Baldwin and dismissing PPP as a Democratic firm that is unreliable:

It is no secret that Democrat Tammy Baldwin doesn't want to face Tommy Thompson in the race for U.S. Senate. For obvious reasons she'd rather run against a hedge fund manager from Washington, DC or a candidate who gained notoriety for running one of the most negative GOP Primary campaigns in Wisconsin history against Gov. Scott Walker.

PPP is a known Democrat polling firm, and their results mirror Baldwin's leak of her own poll on the GOP Primary within the last week. These numbers do not reflect our internal polling numbers or other credible public polls.

Hovde's Campaign Manager Joe Fadness, of course, took a different view and touted the results from PPP as lining up with feedback and reactions the campaign is getting from across the state:

Today’s numbers reaffirm a series of recent polls that show that this is a two-man race and that Eric Hovde has the momentum going into the final five weeks of the campaign.

Eric’s message is resonating, and voters are looking for a political outsider with real world experience who can put things back on track – not a career politician and corporate lobbyist who grew the size ofgovernment and raised taxes and fees by millions before profiting off his time in office.

Voters will head to the polls August 14 to choose the Republican candidate to face Baldwin in November.

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