GOP Tax Plan Increases Taxes On Family of 4: Analysis

RACINE, WI — As Senate Republicans rush to make changes to their tax reform bill just days away from a critical vote, a small group of demonstrators stood before Speaker Paul Ryan's Racine County Constituent Services Center to urge voters to pressure Sen. Ron Johnson to vote against the bill.

Johnson is one of two critical Republican votes needed to keep the GOP's tax plan alive. Johnson has publicly stated that unless there were changes to the bill, he would vote against it. A "no" vote by Johnson could block the bill.

John Heckenlively, who ran as a Democrat against Ryan in 2010 in Wisconsin's First Congressional District, and was at Monday's demonstration, said that Ryan has been the architect of big-money tax cuts before, and his latest effort will hurt working-class families."

"This is nothing new. He's been pushing tax cuts his entire career. Ryan's probably voted for tax cuts for millionaires dozens of times over the course of his career," Heckenlively said. "They can paint this any way they want, but if you look at the raw numbers, if you look at the budget office or any other objective source, something like 60 percent of these tax cuts are going to the top 20 percent."

According to a New York Times report, the bill, as constructed, would increase taxes for families that have at least one child and make less than $100,000 based on an analysis by the Tax Policy Center.

A Politifact analysis of the bill also takes aim at Ryan's claim that the typical family of four will save $1,182 a year on their taxes.

According to their analysis, Ryan's calculation does not factor in several itemized deductions that would disappear under the GOP tax plan. Their analysis states that " the initial tax cut for a family making $59,000 becomes a $500 tax increase by 2024 compared to the status quo."

Julie Rohan, drove an hour south from Fox Point to attend Monday's demonstration in front of Ryan's office. "Trickle down does not work, it did not work before, and I am so disappointed in Paul Ryan. I thought his initial intelligence and business sense, that he'd be good, but he's just falling into the 'let's get the rich more freedom,' and it doesn't work," she said.

While budget-based claims appear to be hitting the mark when it comes to the GOP tax bill, one argument that was presented at Monday's demonstration has been partially debunked.

On Oct. 4, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said Trump's tax proposal is both biased toward wealthier Americans while also using Medicare and Medicaid cuts to fund the tax cuts as proposed.

"The Republicans are proposing to pay for their giant tax cut to the rich by gutting Medicare and Medicaid," Schumer said. "That's the bombshell this week. That is the nugget that will destroy their whole plan, because Americans are so against those kinds of cuts."

That argument has been echoed across the U.S. by opponents of the bill.

When Politifact dug into this issue, they found Schumer's claims "Half True," stating that "As released, the tax proposal promises to partially offset cuts by repealing other tax breaks, with the rest simply adding to the deficit. And the Senate budget resolution allows the deficit to increase by $1.5 trillion ... it would be at least as accurate to say that the tax cuts would be paid for by added deficits, rather than cuts to Medicare and Medicaid."

Patch.com Photo by Scott Anderson