Republican Victory: Judicial Panel Upholds Vast Majority of Districts

This is an overwhelming victory for the Republicans: out of 132 total districts (99 Assembly, 33 Senate), only 2 need to be redrawn — .

How those districts were redrawn in the first place is interesting. The Republicans really weren't concerned with trying to create even a single district on the south side of Milwaukee they could win, so in order to hopefully avoid this kind of legal challenge, they sat down with various Hispanic groups to see what they wanted.

The options were basically to either: (a) draw two districts with roughly equal Hispanic populations, giving them two majority districts (approximately 60 percent and 55 percent Hispanic), or (b) draw one district with a much higher Hispanic population, giving them one really solid majority district and one much closer district (approximately 65 percent and 50 percent Hispanic).

Interestingly, the Hispanic groups themselves could not agree. Some wanted the solid reassurance of one super district, others wanted the opportunity to win two districts.

The judges in this case concluded that federal law (the Voting Rights Act) requires one "sure thing" rather than two "opportunities." Bird in the hand, and all that. I find the judges' opinion on this issue well-reasoned. (Much of the rest of the opinion — which upholds every other district — represents the judges gnashing their teeth about how awful they think the Republicans were in doing this, but reluctantly admitting they didn't violate any laws in doing so.)

A brief aside for a minute while I gripe on the VRA. I have a lot of problems with the portion of the VRA that requires legislative lines to be drawn on the basis of race.  One is officially paying this much attention to race — it’s discriminatory, and we need to move past such racial politics. Another is the assumption that races act in voting concert (the very fact that Hispanic groups disagreed on the better alternative would tend to disprove that). Another is ignoring the fact that even a minority population block, if they have higher turnout than other groups, can actually become the voting majority by their own choice. Another is the fact that it encourages self-segregation, because only racial populations that are "compact" enough get special treatment under the VRA.

So what happens now?  Governor Scott Walker will likely call a special session to redraw these lines. With the Senate now split 16-16 after the resignation of Sen. Pam Galloway, the Democrats may try to withhold their support in hopes of gaining concessions to other portions of the map.  However, should that deadlock occur, the Republicans can simply turn back to the courts to order the slight change necessary to bring those two districts into compliance with the VRA.

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