Hurricane Delta: How It Might Affect Alabama

BIRMINGHAM, AL — Although dry weather is expected over the next few days in Alabama, Tropical Depression 26 is expected to become Tropical Storm Delta Monday, then reach hurricane strength Tuesday, which will bring rain to Alabama.

"Models are in good agreement, and the latest National Hurricane Center track brings the system to hurricane strength Tuesday night near the Yucatan channel," meteorologist James Spann said. "From there, it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to make landfall on the Louisiana coast between Morgan City and Grand Isle late Thursday night or early Friday morning. The remnant circulation will move up through Mississippi and Alabama Friday and Saturday."

Spann said clouds will increase Thursday and rain is likely over south Alabama during the day, and then statewide Thursday night and Friday as Hurricane Delta moves into the Louisiana coast. "Rain then should end across the state from southwest to northeast during the day Saturday as the remnant circulation moves away from the state," he said.

Rain amounts of 3-5 inches look likely for much of Alabama during the weekend, but Spann said for now major flash flooding is not expected since the ground is not saturated, and the rain should be fairly steady and moderate in nature.

"It is important to note that the average four- and five-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods, respectively. Meaning, of course, this forecast can change," Spann said. "If you are working with old information when it comes to a hurricane forecast, you are working with bad information."

Concerning the intensity forecast, the NHC expects peak intensity Wednesday night into Thursday morning, followed by weakening due to likely cold upwelling of shallow, cool shelf waters off the southwest coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. "Delta most likely will be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at the time of landfall, but, again, this could change," Spann said.