Democrats' Chances Of Advancing In CA Governor's Primary Climb

SACRAMENTO, CA — Former state attorney general Xavier Becerra has emerged a top contender in California's 2026 gubernatorial election after weeks of weak poll numbers — and experts say he is one of only two candidates likely to advance in the primary on June 2.

Becerra, who was previously polling at the bottom, has captured significant support since the demise of former Rep. Eric Swalwell's campaign. Swalwell dropped his campaign and resigned from Congress two days later after he became the center of a sexual assault allegations from multiple women, which he has denied.

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Most recent polls show Becerra leading billionaire and environmentalist Tom Steyer, who was the leading Democrats in polls last month. Steyer's support slipped in one poll this month.

RELATED: Becerra Gains Support, Ties Hilton For Lead In CA Governor's Race, Latest Poll Shows

A recent poll conducted for the California Democratic Party (CADEM) showed Becerra gaining five points, tying him with Conservative commentator Steve Hilton at 18 percent. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco followed with 14 percent, and Steyer fell to 12 percent. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan polled at 7 percent, and Porter dropped to 8 percent. CADEM released the updated tracking poll from the California VOTER Index last week.

Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee both dropped out of the governor's race after the filing deadline.

More California voters were willing to choose a candidate to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, as the number of undecided voters narrowed from 24 percent to 14 percent.

Becerra's unexpected surge in recent polls has been "thanks almost entirely" to Swalwell's campaign imploding and voters tuning into the election late, said Christian Grose, a political expert and director of USC's Democracy and Fair Elections Lab.

"The governor's election is still fairly wide open, but the candidates I now think who are most likely to advance among the Democrats are Becerra and Steyer," said Grose.

RELATED: Potential For Further Scandal Looms As CA Governor's Race Is Reshuffled By Swalwell's Exit

"I think there is a small chance both will be in the general election."

The race became heated last week during a televised debate among the leading candidates, with the contenders attacking each other throughout the event.

The contest is unfolding as California struggles with a long-running homeless crisis, wildfire insurance shortages, projected budget shortfalls and housing costs that are out of reach for many working-class families. Voters, meanwhile, are saddled with growing everyday bills for groceries, utilities and gas.

Trump — who is widely unpopular in California outside his conservative base — was frequently denounced by Democrats, while Republicans said he was being used as a convenient scapegoat for the failures of the state’s Democratic leadership.

“Yes, I’m going to repeat Donald Trump as often as I have to because he’s the real menace that we have in California,” Becerra said during the debate.

RELATED: CA's Woes At The Center Of Debate Among Leading Candidates For Governor

“Donald Trump sucks,” Porter said bluntly.

The candidates sparred over tax policy, with only Steyer saying he supports a one-time tax on billionaires that’s likely to be on the ballot this November. He said it wasn’t the only tax increase he’d seek. Porter, meanwhile, said the tax was too narrow and wouldn’t make a real change. Mahan, who wants to suspend the state’s gas tax, said his fellow Democrats have focused too much on expanding government rather than making it work better. Hilton pledged to make people’s first $100,000 free of income tax.

Beyond policy, the candidates looked for openings to knock down their rivals. Becerra was peppered with questions about the federal indictment of his chief of staff and others, including a former top Newsom aide, alleging they stole campaign money from him. The indictment alleges the scheme was designed to pad the salary of Becerra’s chief of staff when Becerra was serving as the federal health secretary. Several people involved have pleaded guilty.

Becerra has not been implicated or indicted, but Villaraigosa and Hilton used the incident to question his judgment and suggest he may have been involved. Hilton said that, if elected, he would even push the state attorney general to investigate Becerra.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.