Potential For Further Scandal Looms As CA Governor's Race Is Reshuffled By Swalwell's Exit

SACRAMENTO, CA — Eric Swalwell's ignoble departure from the 2026 California gubernatorial election has opened the door for other candidates to advance in new polls, triggering a dramatic shift in the race, according to the first major poll since the frontrunner left the race.

According to a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling, former California attorney general Xavier Becerra saw the largest boost since Swalwell's departure from the race. Becerra now has support from 10 percent of likely voters, a boost from 3 percent last month. Republican commentator Steve Hilton, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, is polling at the top of the pack with support from 17 percent of likely voters. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Democratic billionaire businessman candidate Tom Steyer were tied with about 14 percent of support among likely voters.

A poll conducted by Emerson last month showed Swalwell, who represented the Bay Area, receiving the support of 17 percent of likely voters, making him the frontrunner headed into the primary election on June 2.

With seven major Democratic candidates splitting the vote, the race remains chaotic, and the two Republicans continue to lead in the polls.

Among the Democrats, former Rep. Katie Porter was running neck-and-neck with Becerra at 10 percent, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan received the support of 5 percent of likely voters.

The survey, which was released on Thursday, was commissioned by the right-leaning Nexstar Media Group and Inside California Politics, and conducted by Emerson College April 14 through April 15.

About 23 percent of likely voters in California remain undecided about the 2026 gubernatorial election, according to the survey.

The contentious governor's race has been dogged by controversies and legal fights. Former Rep. Swalwell ended his campaign for governor on Saturday amid growing bipartisan calls for him to drop out of the race after he was accused of sexual assault. Swalwell also resigned from the U.S. House of Representatives on Monday but denied the allegations of sexual assault amid ongoing criminal investigations into the allegations.

Bianco, who is polling second only to his fellow Republican challenger Hilton, has been engaged in a legal battle with state leaders, including Attorney General Rob Bonta, over allegations of possible voter fraud in Riverside County during the Proposition 50 special election in November. State Democrats have refuted the allegations of voter fraud saying the information relied on was inaccurate. Last week, the California Supreme Court ordered Bianco to pause his election probe after his department seized more than 650,000 ballots.

The California governor's election has been an unusual race compared to previous state elections. California Democratic National Committee Chair Rusty Hicks surprised many Democrats after he published an open letter last month asking the crowded field of contenders to "assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign." However, he refused to strong-arm any candidates into withdrawing and neither Gov. Gavin Newsom or Rep. Nancy Pelosi have publically enetered the fray to clear a path for a Democratic frontrunner.

In his open letter, Hicks addressed speculation that the two Republican candidates could shut Democrats out of the governor's election in November.

"Despite the ongoing chatter, the likelihood of two Republicans effectively 'locking out' California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low. However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible, and I know we are collectively committed to taking the steps required to avoid that possibility," Hicks wrote.

Multiple polls have showed Bianco and Hilton continued to hold strong leads in the governor's race. California's last Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, was elected in 2003.

Christian Grose, a professor of political science and director of the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, said the current state of the governor's race is "fluid" after the sexual assault allegations imploded Swalwell's campaign, and Democrats need to field strong candidates in the general election.

"Because of the top-two system, there is a chance two Democrats could advance in the general or two Republicans. More likely, though, is a Democrat and Republican in the general," he said.

Grose warned that Democrats need to steer clear of any potential scandals.

"Swalwell's assault allegations, had they come out in the general, would have potentially led to a Republican governor," Grose said.

"Similarly, scandals around candidates like Xavier Becerra — who has a potential political corruption issue brewing due to a former campaign manager stealing money from his campaign — could blow up. Vetting this and other candidates' scandals in the primary can help Democratic voters choose the candidate for the general election most likely to compete well against a Republican challenger, assuming the general is a Democrat versus Republican."