SAN DIEGO, CA — Scientists are warning that conditions in the Pacific Ocean are fueling a "Super El Niño" weather pattern that is developing earlier than expected, potentially bringing powerful storms and torrential rain to California in the winter.
On Thursday, the National Weather Service said there is a strong chance El Niño will emerge this month and continue throughout the winter.
According to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, there is an 82 percent chance El Niño will show up in the next few months. In addition, there is a 97 percent chance that El Nino will be active in the winter.
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A historically strong “super El Niño” can disrupt weather patterns worldwide, often bringing heavier rains and flooding to some regions while worsening drought and heat in others. Meteorologists say a major event in 2026 could contribute to record global temperatures, alter hurricane activity, fuel wildfires, and strain food and water supplies in vulnerable areas.
NOAA said it is still too early to know whether it will reach “super El Niño” strength. Spring forecasts are notoriously uncertain because ocean and atmospheric conditions can change rapidly.
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El Niño, known for warming of oceans, is part of a natural cycle emerges approximately every 2 to 7 years. Forecasters have predicted this year's Super El Niño event could possibly be the strongest on record.
This week, scientist Paul Roundy of the State University of New York at Albany estimated that the developing El Niño had about a 50 percent chance of becoming the strongest in 140 years, up 20 percent from last month, The SF Chronicle reported.
Recent model projections show temperatures in the Pacific Ocean temperatures will be 3.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the average by November, which forecaster say would have a global impact, especially in coastal areas.
According to Accuweather, when Pacific Ocean water near the equator is at least 0.9 of a degree Fahrenheit (0.5 degree Celsius) above long-term averages, El Niño is declared. Water temperatures must be at least 3.6 F (2 Celsius) above normal to be declared a Super El Nino, which has only been recorded five times since 1950.
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If the models are correct, an El Niño event into California's 2026-2027 winter would surpass the previous super El Niño's recorded in 1997-98 and 2015-2016 with surface temperatures of 2.4, and 2.6 degrees Celsius above average, respectively.
The NOAA's Niño index also tracks ocean temperature changes linked to El Niño.
The development of a potential El Niño comes as the Pacific Ocean has already been warming, with temperatures near the equator about 7 degrees Celsius above normal.
"An El Niño is not a storm. It does not affect you directly. It is a cycle that contributes, like many other factors, to produce weather changes and sometimes extremes," AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok explained.
"While some impacts may emerge later this year, the more significant global weather effects are likely early next year," he said.
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