CONTRA COSTA, CA — The battle over a proposed regional transit sales tax has accelerated since early July, with a taxpayer coalition formally launching its opposition campaign as transit agencies, business leaders, labor unions, and elected officials intensify efforts to pass what supporters call a critical funding measure for Bay Area public transportation.
The Connect Bay Area Act will appear on the Nov. 3 ballot after organizers submitted far more signatures than required to qualify the citizen initiative.
On July 1, the Public Transit Revenue Measure District officially certified the petition for the ballot, clearing the way for the November election.
The measure would increase sales taxes by one-half cent per dollar in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties, and by one cent per dollar in San Francisco.
Supporters estimate it would generate roughly $14 billion over 14 years to fund BART, AC Transit, Muni, Caltrain, and other transit agencies facing long-term operating deficits.
Since the opposition campaign launched July 6, supporters have highlighted another milestone, announcing the signature drive exceeded the minimum requirement by about 66%.
"The overwhelming signature total that led to the measure's qualification for the ballot reflects broad public support for transit and growing awareness of the urgency surrounding the future of Bay Area public transportation," the Connect Bay Area campaign said in a news release.
Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission has released a Rider-Focused Improvements Expenditure Plan describing how the new revenue would be allocated if voters approve the measure.
The plan outlines investments in transit operations, reliability improvements, safety, and rider-focused capital projects within the five-county district.
BART and elected officials have repeatedly warned of drastic service cuts without more money flowing into transit.
However, opponents argue Bay Area taxpayers should reject the tax proposal.
A five-county coalition of taxpayer advocates, transit reform organizations, and civic leaders formed the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, contending the measure would push combined sales tax rates to 11% or higher in several Bay Area cities while transit agencies continue receiving billions of dollars annually from taxes, tolls, and government subsidies.
"There are a lot of other alternatives that should be looked at first, rather than just continually coming back and asking the voters to approve more taxes," Tom Rubin, a governing board member of the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit, told KQED.
The committee says Bay Area transit operators received more than $6 billion in taxes, tolls, and government grants during fiscal year 2024-25. Rather than seeking new taxes, coalition leaders argue agencies should redirect existing resources, postpone major capital projects, and return to voters with a smaller proposal in 2028.
Among the projects the coalition proposes delaying are BART's Silicon Valley Phase II extension, California High-Speed Rail, and Caltrain's Portal downtown San Francisco extension.
Marc Joffe, president of the Contra Costa Taxpayers Association and a committee member, argues that the measure asks Bay Area voters to approve more than $14 billion in new taxes despite fewer riders but enormous subsidies. He also claimed that administrative overhead has surged since 2019.
Likewise, Gregg Dieguez of SHIFT-Bay Area argued the proposal would preserve an outdated transit funding model despite permanent changes in commuting patterns following the pandemic.
Supporters reject those arguments, saying they overlook legal restrictions on transportation funding.
Jeff Cretan, spokesperson for the Connect Bay Area campaign, told KQED the committee's proposals are "not grounded in reality," explaining that much of the money dedicated to large construction projects comes from state and federal sources that legally cannot be redirected to operating expenses.
Transit agencies also have sharpened their warnings about what could happen if voters reject the measure.
BART has said it could be forced to close stations and eliminate weekend service. AC Transit has warned it may have to eliminate entire bus lines without a new long-term funding source.
"It's not a false alarm," Cretan told KQED. "If we do not hit a sustainable funding source by this election, stations will close, lines will shut down, and the Bay Area will become less affordable for workers, families, and seniors."
Ethan Elkind, director of the climate program at UC Berkeley Law's Center for Law, Energy & the Environment, who is not affiliated with either campaign, also challenged the opposition's proposal.
Elkind told KQED the committee's claims are "incredibly misleading," noting that while some major projects require state and local matching funds, those dollars often carry restrictions that prevent them from being shifted to daily transit operations.
The election arrives as Bay Area voters have shown mixed views on tax increases.
According to Oaklandside, several local tax measures failed during the June election, including Oakland's Measure E parcel tax, Contra Costa County's Measure G sales tax for low-income health programs, San Francisco's tax on highly paid CEOs, and an El Cerrito library tax.
Transit advocates argue those results do not necessarily forecast the outcome in November.
Carter Lavin of the Transbay Coalition told Oaklandside that Marin County voters approved the SMART transit sales tax by nearly 70% in June. He also noted Contra Costa County's Measure G actually received more than 50% support but failed because it required a 55% supermajority, while the Connect Bay Area Act needs only a simple majority to pass.
Lavin said voters understand that deep transit cuts would ripple beyond transit riders by increasing highway congestion, worsening air pollution, making parking more difficult, and limiting access to jobs throughout the region. He also told Oaklandside the transit measure has not attracted the same level of organized opposition that confronted several other recent tax proposals.
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