Last Quarter 2026 Orange County & California Real Estate Market Update

Last Quarter 2026 Orange County & California Real Estate Market Update

As we move into September, the Orange County and California real estate markets continue to show a clear divide between different types of buyers and sellers.

For homeowners, values remain relatively resilient. In Orange County, the median sale price was approximately $1.23 million in July 2026, up about 3.2% from a year earlier, while homes were taking an average of about 43 days to sell.

At the same time, buyers have more negotiating power than they did during the peak seller-driven markets of a few years ago. Inventory has improved, and buyers are becoming more selective. That means pricing a home correctly from day one is increasingly important for sellers.

For Sellers

If you're thinking about selling, this is not necessarily a market where you simply put a high number on the property and wait.

Well-priced, well-presented homes are still attracting buyers, while properties that are overpriced can sit longer and eventually require price reductions.

For sellers, the strategy is simple: price correctly, prepare the property properly, and create competition whenever possible.

This is particularly important in the higher-end market, where buyers have more choices and are often less sensitive to mortgage rates—but much more sensitive to value.

For Luxury Buyers & Sellers

The luxury market continues to behave differently from the entry-level market.

Higher-income buyers are generally less dependent on financing, and luxury demand has held up better than the broader housing market nationally.

In Orange County, this means desirable properties in locations such as Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Dana Point, San Clemente, Irvine and surrounding coastal communities can still command strong attention when the property, location and pricing are right.

For luxury sellers, however, “luxury” does not automatically mean “any price will work.” Today's buyers are sophisticated and are carefully comparing properties, recent sales and value.

For First-Time Buyers

This is where the market remains most challenging.

Mortgage rates have moved higher again, with the average 30-year fixed rate reaching approximately 6.85% as of the week ending September 4, according to Freddie Mac data reported by Reuters.

For first-time buyers, that means monthly payment—not just purchase price—is often the biggest hurdle.

But there is an important opportunity: buyers who are financially prepared may have more negotiating leverage today than they would in a highly competitive market.

Seller concessions, interest-rate buydowns, closing-cost assistance and other creative financing strategies can sometimes make a significant difference in affordability.

California Market

California's market is also showing a gradual but uneven recovery.

The statewide median existing single-family home price was $887,680 in July 2026, up 0.3% from July 2025, while sales were up 1.1% year over year.

The bigger story is that higher interest rates continue to limit affordability and keep many potential buyers on the sidelines.

That creates an unusual market: homeowners continue to benefit from substantial equity, while many would-be first-time buyers are struggling to make the numbers work.

So, Should You Buy or Sell Now?

There isn't one answer for everyone.

If you're selling, today's market rewards proper pricing, preparation and a strong marketing strategy.

If you're buying, today's market can provide more negotiating opportunities and less pressure than the frenzy of previous years.

And if you're a first-time buyer, waiting for rates to fall isn't necessarily the only strategy. Sometimes buying the right property at the right price and refinancing later can make more sense than waiting and potentially competing with more buyers when rates eventually decline.

The right decision depends on your individual financial situation, timeline and goals.

If you're considering buying, selling or investing anywhere in Orange County or Southern California, I'd be happy to review your specific situation and give you an honest assessment of today's market.

Amir Vahdat | REALTOR® | Broker | MBA
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices