City Council Preview for March 19

What do Mark Tettemer and Scott Voigts have in common? They both spent 8 years on the City Council without ever coming up with an original idea. As we come to the end of the first 4 months in office for the new Council, they are extending their drought. Tuesday night’s agenda puts forward no new ideas, projects, or even vague suggestions. 100 years ago, maintaining the status quo was the status quo. Even 50 years ago there was some merit to defending the castle. But in this day and age, with changes coming every week, remaining in neutral means that we are falling behind.

CIVIC CENTER UPDATE

The project is still running on budget but the time to open has been pushed back to the Fall. Looking at the time chart, November 1 looks like the safe “move-in” time. Total project costs are estimated at $71.7 million.

GENERAL PLAN

The General Plan Committee has been meeting with the consulting group and developing the General Plan. They were tasked with focusing on high priority areas and in developing concepts (algorithms if you wish) for future planners to use in approaching the ever-changing landscape. The idea is to develop a tentative plan right now, perform an EIR, and “in late 2019” submit the revised plan to the public. Sometime in 2020 a final plan will be adopted, after the developers have had a chance to review and revise.

Today I am going to simply summarize the concepts and data in the report. Tomorrow I will take a critical look at what the group is presenting.

FOCUS AREAS

The 5 focus areas are:

• El Toro Road Corridor (From 5 Freeway to the RR tracks)
• Lake Forest Drive (From 5 Freeway to Muirlands, extending to the IRWD recycling plant)
• Civic Center Area
• Foothill Ranch Towne Centre
• Light Industrial/Rail Corridor (Between Jeronimo and RR tracks, bordering El Toro and the Golf Course)

According to the report, none of these areas have existing residential development. They do have substantial "nonresidential" square footage (sf) and they generate jobs. Here is a summary of those dimensions at present –

• El Toro Road Corridor – 757,944 sf, 1694 jobs
• Lake Forest Drive – 1,391,460 sf, 2839 jobs
• Civic Center Area – 2,567,862 sf, 5223 jobs
• Foothill Ranch Towne Centre – 1,185,954 sf, 2696 jobs
• Light Industrial/Rail Corridor – 217,800 sf, 418 jobs

PRINCIPLES

The principles proposed to be adopted are:

• Preserve, protect, and enhance the City’s existing residential neighborhoods
• Support local businesses and industries
• Strengthen the City’s image and identity
• Accommodate future growth in strategic locations near major roadways and transportation facilities
• Allow for the development of thriving mixed-use activity centers where new housing opportunities can be located near desirable goods, services, and jobs
• Expand the range of attainable housing choices to allow more people to live and work in Lake Forest
• Expand the local economy by planning for emerging industries and employment opportunities
• Create a fiscally-sustainable land use plan with balanced residential and nonresidential development.

THEMES

The report offers 4 “themes” or what might more properly be called strategies. The report offers several options –

• Business as usual
• Expanded Housing Choices
• Expanded Employment Choices
• Mixed Growth

POPULATION

Here are the projected population numbers for the 4 themes. According to the report, the current city-wide population is 81,000. FWIW - The city's website indicates that in 2017 the population was 84,931 (Click Here), so I am a little worried about the validity of the report's figures if they can't get the population right, but let's put that aside for awhile.

• Business as usual - 99,785
• Expanded Housing Choices – 136,644
• Expanded Employment Choices – 113,335
• Mixed Growth – 124,608

In other words, if we do nothing, over the next 20 years the population will grow by 23% (assuming the 81,000 figure was correct). If we adopt an aggressive housing expansion program, population will grow by 69% or nearly 3 times the rate of "business as usual".

JOBS

Here are the projected job numbers for the 4 themes. According to the report, the current city-wide job numbers are 36,749.

• Business as usual – 45,977
• Expanded Housing Choices – 50,750
• Expanded Employment Choices – 56,684
• Mixed Growth – 51,079

If we do nothing, job growth will be 25%. With an aggressive jobs program, growth will be 54%.

GPAC FONDNESS

The final section of the report consists of votes by General Plan Advisory Committee (GPAC) members as to their fondness for the various options across the various focus areas. Only 11 votes are counted although the committee had more than 11 members, and in some cases only 9 people voted. Here are the fondness votes by focus area –

• El Toro Road Corridor – 5 Mixed Growth, 3 Expand Housing, 2 Expand Employment.
• Lake Forest Drive – 6 Additional Consideration, 5 Expand Employment
• Civic Center Area – 9 Additional Consideration
• Foothill Ranch Towne Centre – 9 Additional Consideration, 2 Expand Housing
• Light Industrial/Rail Corridor – 8 Additional Consideration, 1 Expand Housing, 1 Expand Employment, 1 Mixed Growth

The fondness votes are surprising when you consider that the report gives no explanation for what the “additional considerations” are, and more importantly, what the data is. This option, undefined, is the preferred option in 4 of the 5 focus areas.

These are the essential data being presented in the report. Tomorrow we'll look at the validity and utility of the report and what can be done to create a better report.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner was on the Lake Forest City Council from 2014 to 2018 and Mayor in 2018. Under his leadership the City became the first debt free city in the U.S. with a population over 25,000 people and the first city to live broadcast City Council meetings that allowed residents to participate online (Click Here). Dr. Gardner is one of the organizing members of Lake Forest Community Action Network. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook