Collisions in Lake Forest

At my request city staff recently completed an analysis of collision data at the intersections in Lake Forest. The preliminary report has the data for 2015 and 2016 and they are working on 2017.

MAIN FINDINGS

The main points in the study are:

• Using statewide 2011 to 2015 data, Lake Forest was among the cities with the lowest collision rates for cities between 50,000 and 100,000 people, coming in between 87 and 102 out of 105 (l05 being lowest ). MV (87) and LN (95) had similarly comparatively safe rankings.
• Traffic safety standards identify intersections with 5 or more collisions in a 12 month period as requiring “further study or review.” In 2014 and 2015 combined, Lake Forest had only 14 intersections in the entire city with 5 or more collisions in a 12 month period
• In terms of East/West streets, El Toro had the most collisions (6), followed by Lake Forest Drive (5) and then Bake Pkwy (2).
• In terms of North/South streets, Trabuco (3), Rockfield (3) and Muirlands (3) had the most collisions

COLLISIONS

The intersections with the most collisions (2015 and 2016 combined) are

• Lake Forest/Rockfield – 16
• El Toro/Bridger/I5 – 13
• Lake Forest/Trabuco – 13
• El Toro/Jeronimo - 12
• El Toro/Muirlands – 12
• Lake Forest/Jeronimo - 10
• El Toro/Rockfield – 10
• El Toro/Trabuco – 10

COLLISSION RATES

However, when the collisions are compared with the traffic flow at the intersections, the rankings are somewhat changed. In terms of accident rate (2016) here are the worst intersections (rates figures per 1,000,000) –

• Rockfield/Orchard – 0.56
• Muirlands/Dylan - 0.42
• Lake Forest/Rockfield - 0.41
• Lake Forest/Serrano – 0.36
• El Toro/Raymond – 0.36
• Bake/Portola – 0.32
• Lake Forest/Portola – 0.30
• Lake Forest/Trabuco – 0.30
• El Toro/ Rockfield – 0.30

Traffic safety standards identify intersections with rates of 1.2 per 1,000,000 as worthy of “further study or review”. In 2015 and 2016 none of the Lake Forest intersections exceeded 0.56

SUMMARY

All things considered, based on 20156 and 2016, traffic collision data shows that Lake Forest is not having a major problem in this area. We are among the cities with the least number of collisions, we have few intersections that qualify for “further study”, and none of our intersections have a collision rate that is even half as serious as would require further study.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest where he serves as Mayor. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His Twitter handle is @DrJimGardner. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a town hall meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be May 17 at 7 pm at the Lake 1 Clubhouse (Ridge Route).