Crime and Alcohol in Lake Forest. Part 3 - The Impact of More Outlets

We’re examining the request from a discount chain to sell beer and wine in two of their stores in Lake Forest.

In Part 1 of this series we reported that –

• Lake Forest has 159 total outlets selling alcohol, and among the 12 cities in South Orange County, has the 5th highest concentration, with1 outlet for every 496 people.

• Of the 16 census tracts in Lake Forest, 5 are oversaturated, 4 are at their limit, 2 are below their limits, and 5 are zoned exclusively residential and do not permit commercial stores

In Part 2 we reported that –

• A majority of criminal offenders were under the influence of alcohol alone when they committed their crimes. This amounts to more than 3,000,000 violent crimes per year.

• For 40% of convicted murderers being held in either jail or State prison, alcohol use was a factor in the homicide.

Today we want to look at data on the relationship between the number of outlets selling alcohol and drunken driving and crime.

IMPACT OF THE NUMBER OF OUTLETS

Almost every study that has ever been done on this topic has shown a high positive correlation between the amount of alcohol consumed and the number of outlets. The U.S. Department of Justice said -

“Today there appears to be growing support for addressing the link between alcohol and violence through interventions in the various contexts in which it occurs (e.g., physical, social, etc.). This includes interventions in the alcohol environment, focusing on how, when and where alcohol is sold and consumed."

Studies conducted in such diverse environments as Los Angeles, Newark, and New Orleans and with such diverse populations as college students, inner city adults, and incarcerated felons, all find the same thing – the more places that sell alcohol, the more people drink.

A study in Los Angeles County showed that each additional alcohol outlet was associated with 3.4 additional assaults per year. A study in New Orleans found that a census tract with 2 off-sale outlets had 24% more homicides than a tract with only 1 outlet. A study in the City of Los Angeles found that a 1% increase in outlet density resulted in a .54% increase in alcohol-related crashes.

LOCAL DATA

For this series I did an analysis of the serious crime and the DUI arrests in10 cities in South Orange County, and looked at the relationship between these two variables and the number of outlets in the10 cities.

In Lake Forest, in recent years, a high percentage of the murders that happened in the City involved alcohol in one way or another (i.e., alcohol in victim or alcohol in perpetrator), and most happened in the home. 

Crime: It is not mere happenstance that the cities in South Orange County that have the highest crime rates, per capita, are also the cities that have the highest concentration of stores selling alcohol – Dana Point, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, and Lake Forest. Similarly, those cities with the lowest crime rates, per capita, also have the lowest concentrations (per capita) of stores selling alcohol – Laguna Woods, Aliso Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, Irvine, and Mission Viejo.

Cities with liquor outlets for every 500 or fewer people average 1,604 serious crimes per 100,000 while cities with liquor outlets for every 1,000 or more people average only 720 serious crimes per 100,000. That’s a heck of a difference.

DUI Arrests: Looking at DUI arrests, the data are highly similar. The cities with the highest DUI arrests per capita are also the cities that have the highest concentration of stores selling alcohol – Dana Point, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, and Lake Forest. Similarly, those cities with the lowest DUI arrest rates per capita also have the lowest concentrations (per capita) of stores selling alcohol – Laguna Woods, and Aliso Viejo, and Rancho Santa Margarita.

Cities with more than 1 alcohol outlet for every 100 people or more had an average of 260 DUI arrests in 2013, but cities with fewer than 1 outlet per 100 people only had 129 DUI arrests– less than half as many.

This is pretty profound data – On a per capita basis, the more outlets you have, the more serious crime and the more DUI arrests.

How do we compare in Lake Forest?  Of these 10 cities -

• we have the 4th highest concentration of alcohol outlets

In comparison, Aliso Viejo has the 2nd lowest concentration of outlets, the 3rd lowest crime rate, and the 2nd lowest DUI arrest rate. Dana Point, on the other end of the spectrum, has the highest concentration, the highest DUI arrest rate, and the highest crime rate.

SUMMARY

Research throughout the United States as well as here in Orange County shows conclusively that the more outlets you have, the more crime and DUI arrests you’ll have.

Adding more stores that sell alcohol, beer, and wine will only add to the crime rate as well as the DUI rate.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the claims by the discount store seeking to add two more stores that sell beer and wine.

FYI – A detailed report is available for anyone wanted to learn more. E-mail me at DrJGardner@gmail.com