Crime in Lake Forest in 2013 - Part 1 Crimes

We're taking a look at crime data for Lake Forest for 2013. Yesterday we looked at the methodology. Today we look at the data.

PART 1 CRIMES

Part 1 crimes are the most serious crimes. They include murder, forcible rape, assault, robberies, burglary, and motor vehicle theft.

Here’s the number of crimes per 100,000 people for Part 1 crimes in 2013 (PS – the higher you are, the more crime)

1. RSM – 641

2. Aliso Viejo – 711

Comparatively speaking, Lake Forest was 8th in 2011-12 and now we are 6th in 2013. So there is some improvement. Our crime rate in 2011-12 was 1,440 per 100,000 and in 2013 it was 1,186. Not only did we improve comparatively, we improved absolutely. However, coming in 6th place out of 10 cities, we still have a long way to go.

CHANGE IN PART 1 CRIMES

Throughout the country, crime in 2013 was lower than in 2012. This was also true in Southern Orange County. All 10 of the 10 cities under study had less crime in 2013 than they did in 2012. The greatest decrease on a percentage basis was Aliso Viejo (-26%) and the smallest change was San Clemente (-1.5%). The average was -15% and Lake Forest was -23%.

Although the total number of Part 1 crimes in Lake Forest were down (917 vs. 1,198), not all Part 1 crimes were lower. In 2013 we had more murders, forcible rapes, and robberies than in 2012. The figures are –

• Murders - 2 vs. 0

• Forcible rapes – 12 vs. 8

• Robberies – 23 vs. 20

FWIW – Murders are pretty rare in Southern Orange County. We are the only city to report a murder in 2013. Our total of 4 murders from 2011 through 2013 exceeds the cumulative total number of murders for all 9 cities for the past 3 years.

SOLVING PART 1 CRIMES

Here’s the report card for solving Part 1 crimes.

1. Laguna Hills – 34%

2. RSM – 28%

Lake Forest was 8th in 2011 – 2012, and now tied for 2nd  in 2013, so this was a dramatic improvement from a comparative point of view. In 2011-12 we cleared 19% of the Part 1 crimes and in 2013 it was 28%. So we did better comparatively as well as absolutely. That’s great.

FWIW - Laguna Hills and RSM kept the #1 and #2 spots and Laguna Woods remained last in terms of solving crimes.

SUMMARY

On Part 1 crimes Lake Forest had fewer total crimes and solved more of them, when 2013 is compared to 2011-2012. Notwithstanding that positive note, on a comparative basis most of our neighbors have less crime overall than we do. On an alarming note, we saw increases in murders, forcible rapes, and robberies, and our totals for murder and forcible rapes were the highest for any city in South Orange County.

Next we’ll look at Part 2 crimes