The Homeless Chronicles. Part 5

This is the fifth in a multi-part series about homelessness. Previously we noted that

• Homelessness changes depending on your definition, from very narrow to very broad.
• There are three main groups of homeless people – (1) people who chose to be homeless, (2) people whose disabilities create/contribute to homelessness, and (3) people who experience a major negative event which propels them into homelessness.
• The life style homeless basically want to be left alone. The temporary homeless are looking for help to return them to their normal life. The chronic homeless have such disabling conditions they are the most difficult to reach and to help.
• In recent years, a greater percent of the homeless are coming from the temporary group, fueled largely by the high cost of housing in relationship to their income.
• The commonly used federal survey under –estimates the number of homeless. In reality, there are over a million homeless people nationwide, 250,000 in California and between 10,000 and 15,000 in Orange County.
• There is wide diversity among California counties in the percent of the population who are homeless. Orange County at 0.22% (22 homeless people for every 10,000 residents) is mid low range with an average of 0.39% for the State.

Today we’ll get some perspective inside Orange County looking at the numbers for the cities.

Analysis by Population

The County’s survey (conducted January 2019, published August 2019) reported the total numbers of homeless city-by-city. Not surprising, the bigger the city, the more homeless. What the County failed to do was to examine the number of homeless as a percent of the population. Using that number, here are the top cities and the per capita homeless percent -

• Laguna Beach - 0.63%
• Santa Ana – 0.53%
• Tustin – 0.45%
• Buena Park – 0.35%
• Anaheim – 0.34%
• Fullerton – 0.34%
• Placentia – 0.31%
• Stanton – 0.30%

Note that relatively small cities like Laguna Beach (23,341), Stanton (38.528), and Placentia (52,397) appear on the top list while bigger cities like Irvine (248,531), Huntington Beach (200,809), and Garden Grove (174,226) are missing. So while on an absolute basis Huntington Beach with 349 homeless people has more homeless than Laguna Beach (147), Buena Park (287), Placentia (163), and Stanton (116), on a per capita basis it has far fewer.

Look at the cities with the fewest homeless on a per capita basis –

• Laguna Niguel – 0.02%
• Mission Viejo – 0.03%
• Laguna Woods – 0.03%
• Irvine – 0.05%
• Newport Beach – 0.07%
• Laguna Hills – 0.08%
• Garden Grove – 0.13%
• Lake Forest – 0.14%
• San Juan Capistrano – 0.17%
• Costa Mesa – 0.17%
• Huntington Beach – 0.17%

Once again, population size doesn’t define homelessness. Among the cities with low per capita homeless are cities with high populations, like Irvine (248,531), Huntington Beach (200,809), Garden Grove (174,226) and Costa Mesa (112,784).

Analysis by Cost of Housing

If population alone is unrelated to the percent of homeless, neither is the cost of housing. Computing the median household income and the median gross rent for each city reveals nothing remarkable. Here are the cities with the highest percent of homeless and the corresponding cost of housing index –

• Laguna Beach (0.63%) – 24.75%
• Santa Ana (0.53%) – 27.88%
• Tustin (0.45%) – 29.28%
• Buena Park (0.35%) – 24.86%
• Anaheim (0.34%) – 27.72%
• Fullerton (0.34%) – 24.33%
• Placentia (0.31%) – 24.18%
• Stanton (0.30%) – 32.52%

There’s no trend. Look at the cities with the lowest percent of homeless -

• Mission Viejo (0.03%) – 24.41%
• Irvine (0.05%) – 27.61%
• Newport Beach (0.07%) – 22.35%
• Garden Grove (0.13%) – 28%
• Lake Forest (0.14%) – 23.32%
• San Juan Capistrano (0.17%) – 27.02%
• Costa Mesa (0.17%) – 25.91%
• Huntington Beach (0.17%) – 24.08%

Once again, no trends.

So despite what the County officials and the so-called pundits tell you, the data does not support the idea that population or cost of housing determine the percent of homelessness.

Not to belabor the point, but the same analysis results whether you look at the “cost of living” index or the “percent of poverty” index, and whether or not you use total homeless or unsheltered homeless.

Homelessness, it turns out, is a pretty complex issue, and none of the usual explanations fit the data.

Fair Share

Since we are looking at individual cities, here's a list of those cities that have a significant number of unsheltered homeless but very few, if any, sheltered homeless -

• Newport Beach - 0% (64 unsheltered, 0 sheltered)
• San Juan Capistrano - 0% (62 unsheltered, 0 sheltered)
• Irvine - 2.3% (127 unsheltered and 3 sheltered)
• Costa Mesa - 3% (187 unsheltered and 6 sheltered)

Here are the cities doing the most sheltering for their homeless -

• Tustin -73.5% (95 unsheltered and 264 sheltered)
• Placentia -66.3% (55 unsheltered and 108 sheltered)
• Santa Ana -53% (830 unsheltered and 939 sheltered)
• Laguna Beach -51.7% (71 unsheltered and 76 sheltered)
• Buena Park - 50.5% (142 unsheltered and 145 sheltered)

Summary

Looking at the cities in Orange County that have the most homeless on a per capita basis gives a very different picture from the one offered by the County that relied on size alone. Using the per capita data, the cities most impacted are Laguna Beach, Santa Ana, Tustin, Buena Park, Anaheim, Fullerton, Placentia, and Stanton. Size, cost of housing, poverty level, and cost of living failed to predict the incidence of homelessness on a per capita basis for OC’s cities.

About the Author

Dr. Jim Gardner is the former Mayor of Lake Forest. A Clinical Psychologist, he is a former University Professor and Department Head. He authored several reports about homelessness.