Lake Forest - "Gang of 3" OR "Gang of 5"

Claims

James Gardner Claim: “[Councilmembers Voigts, Robinson and Hamilton] agreed with each other, on average, more than 80% of the time. Contrast that with Councilman Nick and I who agreed only half the time.“ Made via http://patch.com/california/lakeforest-ca/there-gang-3-city-council on December 15, 2015.

James Gardner Claim: “Prior to the recall I was on the winning side 28% of the time, and since the recall started it’s declined to 20%. So it looks like the ability of the Gang to absolutely control the vote has not diminished, but despite my attempt to remain neutral, at least on a public level, my success rate has dropped by 30%. FWIW, Nick has fared even worse. Prior to the recall, Nick was on the winning side 35% of the time, but since the recall started he dropped to 20%. Nick has declined 43% since the recall began.” Made via http://patch.com/california/lakeforest-ca/recall-lake-forest on December 5, 2015.

Analysis

Gardner states he is “Correcting the lies about the Recall in Lake Forest.” Let’s see if his claims are accurate.

First, I created a spreadsheet that recorded every single vote from each City Council meeting since the recall started (I am estimating it at November 1, 2015) from Lake Forest’s website - http://lakeforestca.gov/129/Agendas. I only analyzed regularly scheduled meetings which numbered 17 over this period. Normally, there are 24 meetings per year; so I have a very good sample size - over 70% of a year.

According to my analysis, Gardner and Nick agreed with a majority 93% of the time. Of nearly 200 different votes, Gardner and Nick voted against the majority 13 and 14 times, respectively. Diving into more details, there were 10 times where both Gardner and Nick voted against the majority on the same vote.

Analyzing these 10 agenda items, the largest area of contention occurred 5 times when the city council voted on “Appointments & Commendations” – mostly who gets appointed to a commission. Anyway, here is the detailed description of these 5 votes:

  • November 3 – Appointment to the Orange County Mosquito and Vector Control District

  • December 15 – Selection of Mayor and Mayor Pro Tem

  • December 15 – Resolution Commending Mayor

  • January 5 – Annual City Council Appointments to Boards, Commissions, Committees and Agencies

  • January 5 - Appointment to the Orange County Mosquito and Vector Control District

One final thought: I cannot believe that both Gardner and Nick voted against a Resolution Commending the Mayor for their work. Seems quite petty to me to not commend a colleague for their service to our community.

Summary

Councilman James Gardner is clearly exaggerating the differences between himself/Nick and his other 3 colleagues. According to my impartial and fact-based analysis, I believe there is a Gang of 5 who agree with each other 93% of the time. Gardner appears to be “crying wolf” as his disagreements, as numbered by the number of agenda items, appear to be on political appointments.

Lastly, I enjoy living in Lake Forest and like the direction the city is heading, including decisions made by the Gang of 5.