Strategic Planning Starts Here

Two new sources of data recently appeared that can help us in the strategic planning sessions ahead. One came from the Southern California Association of Government’s Regional Council (SCAG) and the other from Saddleback Valley Unified School District (SVUSD).

SCAG just released their “local profile 2017” report. Here is some data I found interesting and potentially useful as we plan for the City’s future needs.

CITY PROFILE

• Total population – 83,910
• Density – 11,413 people per square mile (we are nearly 3 times a dense as other cities in OC).
• Median age – 38.6 (OC = 37.5)
• Median household income - $95,987 (OC = $77,390)
• Percent Hispanic – 27.5 (OC = 34.7)
• Percent White – 52.8 (OC = 41)
• Percent Asian – 14.1 (OC = 19.3)
• Avg Household Size – 3.0 (OC = 3.1)
• Home ownership – 70.5% (OC = 54.3%)
• Median Home Sale Price - $640,000 (OC = $645,000)

HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS

• Avg Household Size – 3.0 (OC = 3.1)
• 68% of all households have 3 or fewer people.
• 19% of households are single people.
• 67.9% of people live in single family residences
• 4.5% live in mobile homes
• 22.2% live in multi-family 5 units or more.
• 91% of homes built after 1970.
• 8.1% of homes built after 2000
• 71.5% of households own 2 or more cars. 27% own 3 or more.

POPULATION TRENDS

• The groups that are steadily increasing are 55-64 and 65+. They are now nearly 20% of the population and account for nearly 20,000 people.
• All other groups are steadily declining. The biggest decline is in 35-54 year olds, decreasing from 33.4% of the total to 29.3%. This group is the single largest group, accounting for nearly 25,000 people.
• Children under 5 years of age are fewer than 5,000 and have stayed at around 5% of the population, the smallest single group.
• Hispanics (18.6% to 27.5%) and Asians (9.6% to 14.1%) are steadily increasing while Whites (66.7% to 52.8%) are declining and Blacks remain stable (1.6%)
• People with B.A. degree or higher are steadily increasing, from 33.9% to 43.7%. People with H.S. degree has remained stable at about 90%.

SCHOOLS

• Total K-12 public school enrollment is steadily decreasing, and stands at 10,551 in 2016. K-6 enrollment is 6,623.

Related to this I viewed a copy of the March 2017 “School Facilities Needs Analysis”. Here’s some of the data from that study –

• According to SVUSD 4 of our schools are “overcrowded.” They are Foothill (+17%), Lake Forest Elementary (+10%), Olivewood (+8%), and Portola (+7%). For years developers and school officials have insisted that we are not overcrowded, so these latest figures are a big admission that reports of parents have been right all along.
• Regarding future residential units in the next 5 years in Lake Forest, SVUSD projects 1,184 “single family detached” and 1,056 “single family attached”. This growth is significantly higher than cities like RSM (36 attached) and Mission Viejo (84 detached and 60 attached).

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a Town Hall meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be on May 27 at the Foothill Ranch Public Library.