5 CA Variant, Vaccine Questions: What You Need To Know

CALIFORNIA — Whatever collective hope was brought on the wings of the newly developed coronavirus vaccines in mid-December was quickly overshadowed by the emergence of a few pesky mutated variants.

Newly developed vaccines seem to remain effective with some of these variants, but mutant strains detected in California have led scientists on something of a high-speed chase to quickly analyze them and hopefully quell public fear.

The variants found in California include the United Kingdom variant, B.1.1.7; the West Coast variants B.1429 and B.1427; a Southern California variant, CAL.20c; and the newly detected South African variant B.1.351.

The mere mention of the numbered mutants is likely to raise hairs, but health officials assure the public that it's totally normal for viruses to mutate. Still, experts have expressed some concern about the variants' transmissibility and interactions with vaccines.

Patch spoke with Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor of vaccinology and infectious disease at the University of California, Berkeley, about variants, vaccines and other COVID-19 matters.

Here are five burning questions answered.

1. Do variants diminish the effectiveness of vaccines?

The simple answer is, we don't know yet.

Newly developed vaccines seem to maintain their efficacy against the U.K. variant, but there's one that's particularly worrisome: the B.1.351 from South Africa.

Two cases of this variant have been found in the Bay Area: one in Santa Clara County and the other in Alameda County. It is highly transmissible and seems to diminish the effectiveness of some vaccines, Swartzberg said.

"The immunity we have will not be as effective," he said. "We don't know how much less effective it's going to be, but it's not going to be as effective as it's going to be against either [the U.K. variant] or the dominant strain here in the United States. But [vaccines] do appear to be effective in preventing people from dying. So it's just a further argument to get vaccinated."

South Africa reportedly paused its rollout of a vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University after the vaccine offered "minimal protection" in a trial involving some 2,000 people, BBC News reported.

The variant was detected in 90 percent of new coronavirus cases in South Africa.

2. How are variants created, and what can we do to stop them?

A very important argument for getting vaccinated is that it could help slow the production of mutations, Swartzberg said. This is because a virus reproduces billions of copies within an infected person. All it takes for a mutant to emerge is a copy that reproduces abnormally.

"If you're vaccinated, that's not going to happen, which means that not only does the vaccine protect you, but it protects against a virus generating new mutants that could be more dangerous for everybody else," Swartzberg said.

Experts are still actively working to confirm whether vaccines completely prevent mutant production. The opportunities for coronavirus to mutate become "dramatically reduced" in those who are inoculated, Swartzberg said. "Getting vaccinated is really building a wall against the production of new variants," he said.

3. There are nearly 200 cases of the U.K variant in the state. Should Californians be concerned?

Yes and no.

Case numbers continue to plummet in the Golden State each week, but health officials worry about the U.K. variant, which is 50 percent more transmissible. It also looks like this strain — which accounts for 4 percent of cases in the United States — could become the dominant coronavirus by the end of March, Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a White House briefing last week.

"It looks like it's going to become the dominant strain," Swartzberg said. "The good news is that our current vaccines cover it."

The British variant has appeared mostly in San Diego, where more than 138 cases have been detected. Statewide, 189 cases have been reported. Cases have also been confirmed in Los Angeles, Orange, Alameda, San Mateo, San Bernardino and Yolo counties.

Some evidence suggested that the British variant may be associated with an increased risk of death, U.K. scientists reported last month. But other early reports found no evidence that the variant has any effect on disease severity, the CDC reported.

So the bottom line is, yes, Californians should be concerned. But, according to Swartzberg, continuing to socially distance before having the opportunity to get vaccinated is the answer.

4. There are quite a few West Coast variant cases in California that have spread around the world. There doesn't seem to be much information about these variants. Why is that?

There seems to be much more information circulating about the British variant, the South African variant and even the highly infectious Brazillian variant that has not yet been detected in the state. But there doesn't seem to be a lot of information out there about the handful of strains homegrown right here in California.

The truth is experts are playing catch-up on researching variants.

"In the United States, we haven't been looking for these variants in a very robust way," Swartzberg said. "So we've essentially been blind as to how many there are here. But we have to assume that they're here, and these two [isolated South African variant cases] in Northern California ... just confirm what we've been assuming."

There were more than 1,800 reported cases of the West Coast variant in the Golden State as of Tuesday, according to Gov. Gavin Newsom.

There are two variants that have been identified as West Coast variants: B.1429 (also known as L452R) and B.1427. A third variant that carries the B.1429 mutation was found in Southern California in October.

Confused yet? Join the club.

"We don't have as much information [about California variants], and we really need that," Swartzberg said. "Here's what we don't know: We don't know whether they're more transmissible, and we don't know whether they are more virulent. We just don't know the answer to that."

There's also no evidence to suggest that any of the variations are resistant to vaccines. But again, we don't have a lot of solid data even about that, Swartzberg said. "So I'd say our feet are pretty firmly planted in the air about these two new variants in California," he said.

Another possibility for why there's almost no information about the West Coast variants is that they haven't been around as long as the other variants, which have taken their respective countries of origin by storm.

"In Brazil, South Africa and in the U.K., these strains have exploded, and they've caused major epidemics," Swartzberg said. "They've become dominant. ... They are a much bigger problem, number one, and number two, they've been around longer. We just don't have the data because they're too new here."

5. Lately, case numbers in California have fallen steadily as the state ramps up its vaccine rollout. But could the presence of these new mutants thwart the state's progress?

Perhaps.

"We're in a critical period now, roughly for the next six weeks," Swartzberg said. "And it's really asking a lot of people right now because we're into a year now dealing with this, and everybody is just exhausted emotionally.

"We've just now come through the most horrific period of this pandemic here in the United States and in California," he added. "So it's hard to reach down and find the energy to do the things we need to do to protect ourselves and protect the community. But ironically, now is probably the most critical time to do that. And the reason I say that is because we're on a trajectory now that's so favorable in terms of the declining number of cases — they're really dropping very, very fast, and we want to see that continue."

Cases are dropping quickly, but the U.S. still has more cases per day now than the country experienced in the summer, Swartzberg said. "So we can't take our foot off the brakes right now. We've got to keep these numbers dramatically declining."

The U.K. variant, which is 50 percent more transmissible, is on track to become the dominant strain here. Its presence could disrupt the favorable trajectory.

"That's going to counteract things somewhat," Swartzberg said. "So we need to put a real push on [getting vaccinated] because we're really racing with this virus. The virus is going to continue to produce mutants as long as it can find a susceptible host. So we need to be doubling down on everything that we're doing. So, I would say, get vaccinated as quickly as you possibly can."

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