Bass, Caruso In Dead Heat Headed Into Election Day

LOS ANGELES, CA — The polls have closed, and no matter the outcome, this Los Angeles Mayor's race will be history-making.

Rep. Karen Bas could be the city's first woman elected as mayor. Developer Rick Bass has run the most expensive mayoral campaign Los Angeles has ever seen.

She has the big endorsements. He has the big war chest. Both Bass and Caruso are leaning into their strengths in the final days of the Los Angeles mayor’s race.

If the limited polling available holds true, it’s Caruso, the billionaire developer and Republican-turned-Democrat, who carries the momentum.

After losing the primary to Bass by seven points in June, a Southern California News Group poll released Oct. 18 has Caruso leading by 3 percent, essentially a dead heat.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times came out Friday with a poll showing, Bass maintaining her slight edge of support among 45 percent of likely voters compared to Caruso, who garnered support from 41 percent of likely voters. About 13 percent of respondents said they remained undecided.

It’s a dramatic turnaround from the summer when polls had Bass with a double-digit lead.

Caruso, who has campaigned on his business acumen and status as a political outsider, has effectively used his financial advantage to target the voter-rich San Fernando Valley and on ads targeting Hispanic and Asian voters.

Caruso, 63, sits on the board of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and was endorsed by the police union. He has positioned himself as a centrist running against City Hall’s progressive establishment. He blames Bass, 68, and other longtime incumbents for sprawling homeless encampments that have spread into virtually every neighborhood and concerns about unsafe streets.

“Voters know the best way to address homelessness and safety is to have a leader who doesn’t accept the deterioration of our quality of life,” Caruso told the LA Daily News in a statement after the latest poll game out.

However, Pastor Cue Jn-Marie, of Skid Row’s Church Without Walls, laid the blame for the homelessness crisis at the feet of developers such as Caruso.

“Rick Caruso has made his money off of California’s number one crisis, which is the homeless crisis,” he told the paper. “To allow the person who has been basically causing trauma to our communities to be the mayor of the city, I don’t see anything getting done.”

The race largely focused on homelessness, City Hall corruption and crime. More than 40,000 people live in trash-strewn homeless encampments and rusty RVs, and widely publicized smash-and-grab robberies and home invasions have unsettled residents.

Bass, who was on then-President-elect Joe Biden’s shortlist for vice president, would be the second Black person to hold the office in addition to being the first woman.

Though Gov. Gavin Newsom notably declined to endorse either Democratic candidate, Bass recently earned an even more influential endorsement from former President Barack Obama.

"I am asking Los Angeles to vote for Karen Bass for mayor," Obama said in a video released by the Bass campaign. "I know Karen, she was with me in supporting my campaign from the beginning, and Karen Bass will deliver results. ... Karen has always been on the right side of the issues we care so deeply about. She has devoted her life to serving her community, from working in the emergency room, to saving California from a budget crisis, to delivering relief during the COVID pandemic as a member of Congress."

Bass, a Democratic congresswoman since 2011, was an early supporter of Obama's 2008 presidential run, campaigning for him in 2007 when she was a member of the state Assembly.

"I am humbled and honored to have the support of President Barack Obama," Bass said."President Obama brought us faith in our government and hope for the future of our country. It is impossible to overstate the impact of his work leading this country for eight scandal-free years advancing social and economic justice had on the nation and the world. That impact became even more obvious when it was followed by four years of corruption and crime emanating from the Oval Office. But we as a country are fighting back. We as a city are fighting back. President Obama's support underscores the contrast in this race and inspires our campaign as we share our plans to solve homelessness and make LA safer and more affordable for everyone during the home stretch."

A community activist, state legislator and congresswoman, Bass has deep roots in the community and ties to both grassroots organizations and the Democratic establishment.

Bass received the endorsement of most state and local Democratic politicians as well as President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Senators Alex Padilla and Bernie Sanders and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa while Caruso has been backed by former Mayor Richard Riordan, business groups including the Los Angeles County Business Federation, and the Los Angeles Police Protective League.

Bass can’t compete with Caruso when it comes to advertisements and paid get-out-the-vote efforts.

With his self-funded campaign, Caruso has been able to outspend Bass 13 to 1 to the tune of $3 million to $4 million a week in the final month of the campaign, the Los Angeles Times reported. His advertising budget is expected to be $53 million, the newspaper reported.

“I’m getting the message out there and it’s an expensive market to get the message out there,” Caruso told KTLA. “But it shows you how much I believe in this city and the future of this city that I would spend that kind of money to get to the people, because we need change and we need it desperately. I’m excited about making that change.”

City News Service contributed to this report.