California Recall Election Latest: Newsom Vies To Stave Off Elder

CALIFORNIA — With hours to go until the polls close on California’s recall election, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom campaigned arm and arm with President Joe Biden while his primary recall opponent Larry Elder took a page out of former President Donald Trump’s playbook in declaring his projected loss the result of voter fraud.

From the start, California’s unique recall process unfolded in the shadow of the nation’s political polarization. Though the polls favored Newsom, and twice as many Democrats returned mail-in ballots as did Republicans, Newsom’s recall vulnerability caught California liberals by surprise.

If he loses, it would be because of a massive defection of Democratic and independent voters. National leaders of both parties are watching the election to see what it portends for a GOP takeover of Congress in 2022.

In a last-ditch effort to stave off a recall of the nation’s most prominent Democratic governor, Biden arrived in the Golden State on Monday for the first time since defeating Trump.

Both Newsom and Biden traveled on Air Force One to Long Beach for Newsom's final recall rally, where they were met by hundreds of pro-recall and Trump supporters at Long Beach City College.

Biden called upon some 1,500 rallygoers to cast politics aside and think about how ousting Newsom could derail efforts to battle the coronavirus pandemic.

“We don’t need politics in this battle against COVID,” he said. “We need science. We need courage. We need leadership. We need Gavin Newsom.”

Biden criticized Newsom’s Republican opponents as climate deniers and pro-life supporters, drawing comparison to leadership in Texas, where abortions were recently banned six weeks from a woman’s last menstrual period.

“Look, if you have any doubt about how important it is to have Gavin, who respects women's rights — just take a look at what's happening in states like Texas.”

Biden also lambasted Elder, Newsom’s top recall rival and a conservative talk show host.

“He’s leading the other team. He’s the clone of Donald Trump,” Biden said at the rally. “Can you imagine him being governor of the state? You can’t let that happen.”

Meanwhile, the perimeter of the campus was lined with hundreds of raucous recall protesters, many of whom held signs reading, “Recall Newsom,” “[Expletive] Biden” and more. Protesters waited to greet Biden’s motorcade at the intersection of Carson Street and Faculty Avenue, while police argued with rallygoers to keep the streets clear — a losing battle as the sun set and protesters eagerly awaited Biden’s vehicle.

“Say her name!” One protester shouted, while hundreds more responded “Ashli Babbitt!”

Babbitt was the San Diego woman who was shot and killed by U.S. Capitol police while attempting to breach the U.S. Capitol in January. She was a 14-year Air Force veteran and avid Trump supporter.

With national politics on display throughout the recall, the final days of the campaign capped an unpredictable election season in California.

In the final month of the abbreviated recall campaign season, the polls showed a great deal of volatility, said Dan Schnur, director of the Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.

It’s worth remembering that a large plurality of voters simply didn’t know who they would support on the second question, he said.

“That leads to a lot of volatility in the polls,” Schnur added.

Going into the final days of the election, the polls appeared to give Newsom cause for hope.
A Berkeley IGS poll released Friday had 60 percent of likely voters preferring to keep Newsom in office and 38.5 percent wanting to recall him.

The Berkeley IGS poll showed Elder with a commanding lead among the potential replacement candidates, garnering support from 38.5 percent of voters who planned to cast a ballot for a one. A third of likely voters said they won’t vote for a replacement to Newsom, the poll said.

Among the voters likely to choose a replacement candidate, Kevin Paffrath came in second, with 10 percent support, followed by former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, with 8 percent. Businessman John Cox and State Assemblyman Kevin Kiley both came in at 4 percent.

About 22.4 million ballots were sent to voters in the recall election, and 8 million votes had been cast as of Sunday, according to the California Secretary of State's office.

Voters were asked to answer just two questions: Should Newsom be recalled, and if so, who should replace him?

A majority of voters would have to vote yes on the recall to make Newsom only the second governor ever recalled. But if he is recalled, his replacement would need a mere plurality of the vote to replace him.

Newsom and the state’s Democratic Party pressured other prominent Democrats to stay out of the race.

It was a risky strategy, Schnur said.

“Newsom has worked so hard to keep other Dems off the ballot. Obviously he wants to defeat the recall election on question number one, but if it should pass, he hasn’t left his party with many options,” Schnur said. “It’s a tremendous risk on Newsom’s part not to allow another Democrat to run to allow his party to have a fallback. He has left his party and a deep blue state with the prospect of a Republican governor that voted for Donald Trump for president.”

Though a right-wing firebrand and conservative radio host such as Elder would hardly seem to be an obvious choice for liberal California, recall supporters banked on Democratic apathy to suppress turnout among Newsom’s base. The strategy seemed to work earlier in the summer when one major poll had Newsom in danger of losing the election.

The governor brought a $70 million war chest into the homestretch of the campaign, and the party activated union leaders to help turnout the vote.

Newsom spent the final days of the election campaigning with the help of the party’s heavy hitters, including longtime ally Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden and former President Barack Obama.

Faulconer scoffed at the strategy Monday.

"Washington, D.C., is not going to save Gavin Newsom," Faulconer said. "He wants to make it about anything else but him. This recall is a referendum on Gavin Newsom's failure. That's why so many Californians not only signed the recall petition, but that's why Californians in all parts of the state, all party registrations, are ready for a change at the top."

Democratic voters returned mail-in ballots at a rate of two to one compared to Republicans during the first several weeks of voting. But recall supporters are counting on Republicans to turn out for in-person voting. They also contend that registered Democrats will support the recall out of contempt for the governor’s handling of the pandemic, including mask mandates, school closures and business shutdowns.

In the end, neither the state Republican or Democratic parties endorsed a candidate to replace Newsom.

Elder emerged early on as the Republican front-runner, but the party did not coalesce around him.

Orrin Heatlie, the former Yolo County sheriff's sergeant who spearheaded the recall effort, came out against Elder. Prominent Republicans urged Elder to drop out after his former fiancee accused him of pulling out a loaded gun during a spat.

But Elder earned the support of many allies of Trump, including his lawyer Rudy Giuliani and speechwriter Stephen Miller. He quickly became the favorite candidate of Trump’s massive base of voters in California.

As polls turned in favor of Newsom this month, Trump joined Elder in alleging without evidence that voter fraud was the only way Newsom could stay in office.

“It’s probably rigged,” Trump told Newsmax last week. “Nobody’s going to win except these Democrats. The one thing they are good at is rigging elections, so I predict it’s a rigged election.”

Though he predicted victory while campaigning in Los Angeles over the weekend, Elder appeared ready to contest a loss. Elder's campaign launched a website asking voters to sign a petition contesting the election results. There is no evidence of voter fraud in the election so far.

“Join us in this fight as you are able, primarily by signing our petition demanding a special session of the California legislature to investigate and ameliorate the twisted results of this 2021 Recall Election of Governor Gavin Newsom,” the website said. “Statistical analyses used to detect fraud in elections held in 3rd-world nations (such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran) have detected fraud in California resulting in Governor Gavin Newsom being reinstated as governor.”

Although 46 replacement candidates are on the ballot, Elder has consistently led most polls gauging who would take over in the governor's office should Newsom be recalled. He has never held public office before, but he's an outspoken opponent of government mandates — such as those requiring mask-wearing or receiving COVID-19 vaccines — and has vowed to eliminate them immediately if elected.

Dissatisfaction with Newsom’s handling of the pandemic drove many recall supporters, but the governor leaned into broader support for pandemic safety measures in the waning days of the campaign. Contrasting his pandemic response to Elder’s vow to end mask mandates, Newsom declared the vote a literal matter of life and death for many Californians.

“When it comes to the COVID-19 vaccine, this recall election is a matter of life and death," Newsom said.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday.

City News Service contributed to this report.