Do Californians Want To Recall Newsom? Survey

CALIFORNIA — The possibility of a gubernatorial recall election is now all but certain in California. But a majority of Golden State voters said in a recent survey that they would vote to keep Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat.

If a special election to recall Newsom were held today, 56 percent of respondents said they would vote to keep Newsom, while 40 percent said they would vote to remove him, according to a statewide survey of 1,706 adult Golden State residents conducted March 14-23 by the Public Policy Institute of California.

The views broke down largely along party lines: Some 79 percent of Republicans were more likely than independents (42 percent) and Democrats (15 percent) to oust the governor.

How would you vote in a recall election? Take the Patch survey.

Newsom launched his own counter-campaign against the recall, slamming it as a partisan effort led by Republicans. "I won't be distracted by this partisan, Republican recall — but I will fight it," he said earlier this month. "There is too much at stake."

A "Stop the Republican Recall" campaign went live earlier this month and included a website with punchy graphics that depicted the recall effort as one backed by supporters of former President Donald Trump, as well as anti-vaccine activists and "extremist Republicans."

Newsom's campaign accused the Republican Party of supercharging the recall effort. Some 42 percent of independents in the Public Policy Institute of California's survey said they would vote to remove him, but only 15 percent of Democrats said they would vote yes in a recall campaign.

"The share who would now vote to remove the governor is similar to the 38 percent who did not vote for Newsom in the fall of 2018," said Mark Baldassare, the institute's president and CEO.

Another poll — published earlier this month by Emerson College and Nexstar Media Group Inc. — similarly showed that 39 percent of independents and 11.8 percent of Democrats would vote to recall him.

Across the Golden State, support for removing the Democratic governor was strongest in the Central Valley (49 percent) and Inland Empire (47 percent) and lowest in the Bay Area (27 percent.)

READ MORE: Newsom Slams Recall, Launches Counter-Campaign

Across Orange County and San Diego, 41 percent of residents surveyed said they supported the recall. In Los Angeles, 40 percent supported ousting Newsom.

Signature collection for the recall effort concluded March 17, and leaders of the campaign said they garnered more than 2 million signatures. The effort needs 1,495,709 signatures to get the recall on the ballot, and the California Secretary of State's office is still working to verify the signatures.

The recall effort began in February 2020, before the pandemic severely upended life in California; supporters said since then that Newsom's response to the pandemic has been disastrous for businesses and that his leadership revealed serious fissures within the state's unemployment agency after an audit found widespread fraud.

A swath of Democratic leaders rallied behind Newsom earlier this month, including Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA); Reps. Katie Porter (D-CA), Cory Booker (D-NJ) and Ro Khanna (D-CA); and Georgia Democratic activist Stacey Abrams.

No Democrat has announced a candidacy against Newsom, and Democrats are calling for unity to stamp out the recall. Last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi warned Democrats not to run in the likely recall election.

"I think it's an unnecessary notion," Pelosi said during a news conference, Politico reported. "I don’t think it even rises to the level of an idea."

Newsom's vow to fight back poses a formidable threat to recall supporters. Under state rules, the California governor can raise money in unlimited amounts, while other candidates must abide by contribution limits.

"[Newsom has] made tough calls that kept Californians safe and helped them recover financially," Booker said, addressing the governor's pandemic response in a statement. "Defeating this cynical, Trump-fueled recall effort will be one of the most important priorities for Democrats this year."

The Republican-led California Patriot Coalition is behind the recall effort, which picked up steam after Newsom's highly controversial French Laundry soiree in which he was seen dining out at the fancy restaurant with a large group of lobbyists and top health brass after urging Californians to stay home.

In an interview with KQED, Newsom discussed the French Laundry incident. "That's [one of] those things you can never get back. And, you know, I owned up to that. And no one hid from that. And that was a mistake. Crystal clear," he told the Bay Area news station.

A few possible challengers to Newsom include Kevin Faulconer, the former Republican mayor of San Diego; former Republican Rep. Doug Ose (CA); and Republican businessman John Cox, whom Newsom defeated in the 2018 governor's race. They have all announced their candidacy for Newsom's seat.

READ MORE:

• Doug Ose Enters Race For CA Governor As Newsom Defends His Post
• Newsom Talks 'Brighter Days' In CA Address As Recall Threat Looms