Indoor Masking To Return If LA Reaches `High' COVID Risk Level In June

LOS ANGELES, CA — Surging coronavirus cases may soon propel Los Angeles County back into mandatory indoor masking territory, health officials warned Thursday.

At the current rate of transmission, Los Angeles could move from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's "medium" virus-activity category to "high" risk by the end of the month, according to county health officials. If the county reaches the "high" category, it will again require that masks be worn in all indoor public settings, Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer confirmed.

Ferrer didn't offer an exact date for when that could happen, noting that Los Angeles County is on track to reach the "high" risk category within a few weeks. The county on Thursday reported 5,047 new COVID infections and 10 new virus-related deaths. Daily case tolls have doubled over the last month in Los Angeles County.

It would take a downturn in the rate of new COVID-19 cases and virus-related hospitalizations for the county to avoid a return to mandatory indoor masking. It's a disappointing development in a year that many Angelenos looked to return to normal after more than two years of pandemic-related disruption.

But Los Angeles wouldn't be the first California County to resume indoor masking amid the latest surge. An indoor mask mandate will take effect again on Friday in Alameda County.

Ferrer pointed to a pair of recent studies that suggested mask-wearing has a notable impact on reducing the spread of the virus.

According to one study, which was conducted in California, the odds of testing positive for COVID were 56% lower for people who reported always wearing a mask in indoor public settings, versus those who never wore one. The odds were 83% lower for people who work higher-grade masks -- such as N95 or KN95, Ferrer said.

The second study, conducted in Arkansas, found that school districts with universal masking requirements had 23% lower case rates.

Los Angeles County is currently listed in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's "medium" virus-activity category, based on its cumulative seven-day rate of new cases. But the county will move into the "high" category if its average daily rate of new COVID-related hospital admissions rises above 10 per 100,000 residents, or if the percentage of staffed hospital beds occupied by COVID-positive patients tops 10%.

Ferrer said the county's current rate of new hospital admissions is now 5.2 per 100,000 residents, double the rate from a month ago. The portion of beds occupied by virus patients is still relatively low at 2.7%, but also higher than it was last month.

"While these hospital metrics remain well below the threshold for `high' in the CDC's community-level framework, both our weekly case rate and the rate of increase in hospital admissions are of concern," Ferrer said. "If we continue on the current trajectory ... we're likely to move into the CDC `high' community level within a few weeks, towards the end of June, indicating an increased stress on the health care system."

Ferrer said there is "no certainty" on the date when the county might reach the "high" level.

"Actual hospital admissions could increase at a faster rate, or if case numbers stabilize or decrease in the next two weeks, the rate of increase in hospitalizations could be a lot lower," she said. "As we look to the near future, it reminds us that we ourselves also have the ability to influence where these numbers go. We all have the power to take steps to reduce the amount of viral spread, which ultimately reduces the number of people that are in the hospital with a positive COVID-19 infection."

She applauded the step taken by Alameda County to resume indoor masking.

Los Angeles County currently requires masks indoors at health care facilities, aboard transit vehicles and in transit hubs such as airports, in long-term care facilities, in shelters and cooling centers and in correctional facilities.

The average daily rate of people testing positive for the virus rose to 5.3%, an increase Ferrer said is likely a combination of increased community transmission and reduced overall testing due to the end of the school year.

According to state figures, there were 524 COVID-positive patients in county hospitals as of Thursday, up from 502 a day earlier. The number of those patients being treated in intensive care was 59, up from 53 a day earlier.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.