Grim Coronavirus Death Toll Projected For Silicon Valley: Report

SAN JOSE, CA — A San Jose official offered grim projections of the rising death toll from the new coronavirus during a City Council meeting on Wednesday.

Deputy City Manager Kip Harkness estimated that the county will experience around 2,000 to 16,000 COVID-19 related deaths by the end of May, according to a Los Angeles Times report.

Harkness said the extent to which stay-at-home orders Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered on March 19 are adhered to could dramatically reduce the grimmest of projections, but that “Even in the best case scenario, we were looking at the order — in the next 12 weeks — of 2,000 potential deaths directly from COVID-19.”

Harkness said that if social distancing wasn’t practiced, 16,000 in Santa Clara County could die by the end of May. About half that many would die over that period should mediocre compliance occur, the report said.

Santa Clara County has become the state’s coronavirus epicenter.

As of Wednesday night, the state’s sixth largest county reported 459 reported COVID-19 cases and 17 deaths – more than any in the state.

Harkness believes the reported number of cases reflect a small percentage of the county’s actual infected population, which he estimates to be around 9,000 to 19,000.

“The current number of ... positive tests vastly undercounts the number of actual cases,” Harkness said. “That means we have a false sense of security in terms of thinking, ‘Oh, everyone who’s tested are the only ones who are infected.’ No, there are a large number of us walking around who are infected.”

Harkins said widespread compliance with the state’s stay-at-home orders combined with an increase in the number of hospital beds in anticipation of a surge of COVID-19 cases in the coming weeks is needed to keep the county’s medical system from collapsing under the weight of the pandemic.

“The most important thing that everybody can do is compliance with the public health orders — shelter-in-place. This is this weird moment where the biggest thing you can do to help is this: Do nothing. Go home. Stay on your couch. Watch some Netflix,” Harkness said.

“I know it’s hard, especially for those of us who think action is the thing we need to do. But in this particular epidemic, ‘being’ may be more important than ‘doing’ for most of us.”

Read more in The Los Angeles Times

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