Trump’s Strategic Misfires: Snatching Defeat from Victory in California

This is the third entry in a series examining Trump’s strategic missteps. The previous installment, “The President Who Promised Peace and Delivered War,” is linked here.

“Revolve around yourself,
It’s you and no one else.”

— Anthrax, “Only”

For all the political rhetoric aimed at California, its economic power remains indispensable to the United States. If the state were its own country, it would rank as the world’s fourth‑largest economy. With a GDP of roughly $4.3 trillion, only the United States as a whole, China, and Germany surpass it.

California also subsidizes the economies of many other states, especially smaller and more rural ones. In 2024, it had the largest gap between the amount its residents paid in federal taxes and what they received back from Washington DC. Roughly $275.6 billion left California to fund services elsewhere, making it the nation’s largest donor state.

While California is now solidly blue, the state once supported a genuinely competitive two‑party system. Ronald Reagan served two terms as the state’s Republican governor, and Richard Nixon represented California in both the House and the Senate before rising to national prominence.

So how did the state turn deep blue?

At one time, newly naturalized immigrants from Latin America and their native-born children formed the foundation of the Republican Party’s base. As Catholics, they were often socially conservative on issues like abortion, and this was enough to keep them loyal to the party’s candidates.

This changed in the 1990s, under Republican Governor Pete Wilson, when the party supported two propositions widely viewed as anti-immigrant. The first, Proposition 187, dubbed “Save Our State” (SOS), was passed by voters in 1994 and sought to prohibit undocumented immigrants from using non-emergency health care, public education, and other state services. The courts later struck down the measure as unconstitutional, and it was never allowed to take effect. In 1998, Proposition 227 effectively restricted bilingual education in California.

While these propositions were overwhelmingly passed by the voters, they are widely seen as catalysts for the realignment of power in the state. Many Latino voters no longer felt at home in the Republican Party and subsequently shifted their party affiliations. Except for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s two‑term stint, the state’s government has been dominated by the Democratic Party ever since.

This streak is threatened this year, not by a change in the electorate's views, but by a quirk in California’s election system. In 2010, California abandoned its partisan primaries for a “top‑two” or “jungle” primary, where candidates from all parties compete against each other. The top two then run head‑to‑head in the general election. This can result in two candidates from the same party on the final ballot.

In this year’s gubernatorial election, a crowded field of Democrats was competing for the open seat alongside a much smaller Republican field. This raised concerns that the Democratic votes might be split so thinly that two Republicans would move on to the November election. Polling confirmed that this was a real possibility.

For this scenario to play out, the balance between the top two Republican candidates had to be maintained. If either candidate solidified their support, a Democrat would have enough room to move into the top two positions and would be favored to win in November with a unified Democratic vote.

Showing a lack of political foresight, Trump endorsed a candidate in the race. While Steve Hilton is widely considered the more electable of the two leading Republican candidates, he comes with significant political baggage in a state dominated by Democratic voters. Among these is a promise to arrest Dr. Anthony Fauci for unspecified charges related to the COVID crisis. This calls into question Hilton’s understanding of the office he seeks because California’s Attorney General is elected, not appointed or controlled by the state’s governor.

As any political novice could have predicted, this endorsement helped the candidate pull ahead of his Republican opponent. It made it far less likely that both Republicans would advance to the general election. This was the only scenario in which the GOP was assured a November victory. Running against any Democrat in California, the Republican is widely considered to be an underdog with only a very limited chance at victory.

All Trump had to do in this race was keep quiet. Even that proved too much for him.

Carl Petersen is a former Green Party candidate for the LAUSD School Board and a longtime advocate for public education and special needs families. Now based in Washington State, he writes about politics, culture, and their intersections at TheDifrntDrmr.