Marin’s Workforce Crisis Needs a New Fix: Shared Equity, Not More Rentals By Marc Hunter Lewis

Marin County’s workforce shortage is often framed as a housing problem. But for many of the people who keep local government running, the issue is not just finding a place to live. It is the inability to put down roots.

Teachers, firefighters, sheriff’s deputies, nurses, and public works crews increasingly cannot afford to live in the communities they serve. When that happens, turnover rises, commute distances grow, and the cost of maintaining basic public services increases.

The trend lines are already moving in the wrong direction. Marin’s civilian labor force has declined by nearly 14 percent since 2000. Between 2019 and 2024, the county lost more than 8,000 jobs while the national workforce expanded. At the same time, Marin is aging rapidly. More than 23 percent of residents are 65 or older, and the largest age cohort is now between 55 and 59.

Economists warn that the county faces a high retirement risk, with too few younger workers able to replace those exiting the workforce. Marin has roughly 17,000 fewer millennials than expected for a county of its size. As economist Christopher Thornberg recently noted at a San Rafael Chamber of Commerce forum, the labor force will continue to shrink unless the region addresses its ownership gap.

That is where local policy has stalled.

Most agencies have leaned on a familiar solution: subsidized workforce rental housing. Cities and districts build or acquire units, rent them below market, and manage them over time. While this approach can place workers in the short term, it comes with long-term costs.

Public agencies take on development risk, operating obligations, and ongoing maintenance. Because rents remain below market, subsidies must continue indefinitely. There is no built-in mechanism to recover or reuse those funds. As costs rise, each project requires additional public investment just to maintain the same number of units.

The model also limits upward mobility for the workers it is meant to help. A firefighter or teacher in subsidized housing remains a tenant. Monthly payments do not build equity. If they leave their job, they often lose their housing. The result is a system that supports occupancy, but not long-term stability.

An alternative model, known as shared equity, takes a different approach.

Instead of focusing on rental units, shared equity programs help workers purchase homes. Public agencies can provide down payment assistance, silent second mortgages, or loan guarantees that reduce the upfront cost of buying. In return, the agency retains a share of future appreciation or places resale restrictions to keep the home affordable for the next buyer.

This structure shifts the economics in several ways. It opens access to ownership for households that would otherwise be priced out. It stabilizes the workforce by anchoring employees in the community. And it allows public dollars to be reused.

When a home is eventually sold, the public share of appreciation returns to the program and can help finance the next buyer. Rather than a one-time subsidy, the investment becomes a revolving fund.

The concept is not new. Community land trusts and deed-restricted ownership programs have operated across California for decades. The federal government used a similar framework after World War II through the GI Bill and VA loan guarantees, which expanded access to homeownership without relying on publicly owned housing.

Applying that model locally could allow Marin to support a broader share of its workforce with the same pool of resources.

There are also fiscal considerations. Local agencies already face pressure from pension obligations, infrastructure needs, and rising service costs. Owning and maintaining housing adds another long-term liability, including capital repairs, seismic upgrades, and property management.

Shared equity avoids many of those obligations. It functions more like an investment than an expense, with funds returning over time rather than being permanently tied up in individual units.

Public polling suggests strong concern about housing costs, with more than 90 percent of Marin residents identifying it as a serious issue. The policy question is how to respond in a way that strengthens both the workforce and public balance sheets.

Continuing to rely primarily on subsidized rentals may address short-term placement, but it does little to build long-term stability. Expanding shared equity programs would shift the focus toward ownership, retention, and fiscal sustainability.

Marin is already investing in its workforce through higher wages, signing bonuses, and the hidden costs of turnover. The question is whether those investments will continue to flow into systems that serve one household at a time, or into models that can be reused across generations of public workers.

With a wave of retirements approaching, that choice is becoming more urgent.