Data Raises Alarm About Southland Coronavirus Outbreak

LOS ANGELES, CA — New coronavirus cases in California are on the rise in what health experts warn may be part of second wave following the reopening of the economy.

According to Johns Hopkins University, California is one of about 20 states where new cases are increasing even as other states see their first wave of cases fading. Just last week, Los Angeles County saw 10,000 new cases and some Bay Area communities are seeing new increases. The number of weekly cases in California continues to rise, exceeding 17,000 last week for the first time in the pandemic, according to analysis by the Los Angeles Times. On Tuesday, amid a heated debate with county supervisors over the merits of mask requirements, health officials in Orange County reported an increase in transmission rates and hospitalizations. The troubling data comes as communities across the state ease shutdown orders and as protesters take to the streets in densely packed demonstrations against police brutality. It remains to be seen if the statistics show that the outbreak is spreading faster or if the state's increased testing capacity is simply confirming new cases at a higher rate.

As has been the case for months, L.A. County and the Southland have been the epicenter of the state's outbreak with nearly have the fatalities occurring in Los Angeles L.A. County reported a notable spike in cases on Friday — 1,824 new cases — a one-day record. But it included a backlog of 500 cases filed by a single lab. On Tuesday, the county reported 60 news deaths.

"If we do see an uptick in cases in a couple of weeks from now, it will likely mean that there has already been two to four weeks of increasing transmission by that time," said Dr. Christina Ghaly, director of health services of L.A. County. "So at this point, we could be in the midst of a new upward curve, or transmission may not have increased at all. We just don't know yet."

Despite the uncertainty, California communities are quickly reopening. Not only have churches and restaurant dining rooms been allowed to reopen in many parts of the state, political demonstrations in recent days have raised new concerns about "super-spreading events," in which asymptomatic infected persons spread the disease to numerous others at a single gathering.

"I'm always worried about a surge," Barbara Ferrer, the director of public health in Los Angeles County, said Monday. "We've always known that as more and more people are going to be out and about, we run this risk of there being a surge."

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 20 to 50 percent of people infected with the coronavirus do not show symptoms of illness. But asymptomatic carriers, or "silent spreaders," are believed to transmit disease just as easily as those with visible symptoms, according to the CDC's best estimate.

The rise in cases comes as weekly hospitalizations and deaths are down statewide. There has been a 10 percent drop in the average number of people hospitalized daily with confirmed or suspected coronavirus infection last week compared to a month ago, from 4,859 on the week of April 27 to 4,392 last week.

City News Service and Patch Staffer Paige Austin contributed to this report.