Election Forecast: Going Out on the Proverbial Limb

What’s going to happen next Tuesday? As a person who is adept at reading tea leaves and the handwriting on the wall, these are more than educated guesses but certainly less than wager-making prognostications for ‘Vegas.

POTUS: All signs point to a nail biter but it’s really somewhat moot. Remember, it’s the Electoral College that actually elects El Presidente – not you. And while Barry and The Mittster will make for some spirited coverage, sorry to break the news but I have a feeling Obama sneaks back in. Why? It’s already in the cards in the Electoral College even though we could very well have a popular vote that favors Romney with Obama getting the Electoral College nod.

Proposition 32: According to the latest Field Poll, Proposition 32 - which would make it illegal for unions to continue to deduct political contributions from workers’ paychecks without their permission - will be defeated. Right now, it’s Yes 34%, No 50% and Undecided hovering at 16%.  Granted, the Undecided vote could make a difference one way or the other but in all likelihood, with only 34% support less than four days away from the election, the unions will retain their power to funnel money to the Democrats. FUN FACT: Oddly, the biggest supporters of Prop. 32 are young voters aged 18-29 (40.7%) not the usual union rank-and-file which tends to be significantly older. All other groups poll below 40%, with very low support from 30-39 year old voters (25%).

Proposition 30: Support for the Gov’s tax-hike initiative has now dropped to 48 percent. Prop. 30 will not pass… but IF it does, you can thank the 8% who are Undecided… it’s that close. Such tax hikes have traditionally needed the support of well over 50% of the voters prior to the election to survive. Hate to say it, but the CA electorate will cut off their proverbial noses to spite their face (tired cliché) and as a result, it will trigger $5.4 billion in cuts to K-12 schools and community colleges, and an additional $250 million each to the UC and CalState University systems. Let the educational carnage begin!

(NOTE: Things are worse for Proposition 38, the so called “Millionaire’s Tax” to increase funding for California's K-12 public schools. Support for that has fallen to 34%. It’s DOA.)

Proposition 34: Recall this is to repeal the death penalty. It’s a toss-up as the Undecided vote (17%) will absolutely determine the fate of this initiative statute. Field Poll: Yes 45%, No 37%. FUN FACT: In a really weird juxtaposition, it’s the age group of 50-64 year olds are the most supportive of ending the death penalty (48%) with 18-29 coming in 2nd @ 46%. It’s the 30-49 year old voter block (no small group) that favor of keeping the death penalty.

State and Local Candidates: Many of these are no brainers. Why? Party registration in each of the races (yes, even for ‘non-partisan’ offices) is heavily skewed to the Donkeys and the folks who will win are genuinely nice and knowledgeable people who have the political chops to handle their respective office:

State Senate District 13: Assemblyman Jerry Hill
State Assembly District 19: SF County Assessor Phil Ting
State Assembly District 22: So. San Francisco Councilmember Kevin Mullin
State Assembly District 24: Assemblyman Rich Gordon
San Mateo County Board of Supervisors, District 4: Warren Slocum
Pacifica City Council: Mike O'Neill, Mary Ann Nihart, Karen Ervin (though Sue Vellone could sneak in here as well).
City Council of Daly City: Sal Torres and David Canepa.
Half Moon Bay City Council: 'Farmer John' Muller and Marina Fraser. 

Next time, something wholly and completely different… the All NFL Name Team.