Props 30 and 38 Promise a Wild Ride

Ever been to Disneyland? Today we’ll explore the electoral version of ‘Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride.’

If people vote for only one of the two income tax measures in November, then both are more likely to fail; and if both fail, then despair and misery shall rain down upon students and teachers across the Golden State. So vote for both – right?

The argument refers to Propositions 30 and 38, both of which will increase the personal income tax in California and use the extra revenue to help pay for education. If neither one passes, public schools (i.e., K-12 and the community college, UC and the state college systems) will have to deal with cuts of more than $5 billion - and as I’ve pointed out before - that's in addition to the decreases they've already experienced via the budget negotiations.

The battleground: It’s Gov. Jerry Brown, who’s leading the Proposition 30 effort to help close the state's budget gap, and Molly Munger, a wealthy civil rights attorney (can you say billionaire?) who is bankrolling Proposition 38.

Voters obviously have the option to vote ‘Yes’ on both measures. It's a concept that could increase the probability that at least one of the measures passes, but the question remains: what really happens if both pass?

The immediate answer is this: The one with the most votes will prevail, and the other will be thrown out. That's in part because the state Constitution spells out what to do in such cases, but also because each measure contains a clause that would nullify the other should they both pass. Ah, but there’s more….

JB has argued that whichever gets more votes, then the winning measure only precludes certain provisions - and not the entirety of the proposition - of the losing measure from going into effect. Translation: Picking through the flotsam and jetsam of each like a hobo going through a dumpster, trying to salvage what remains including a dust up in court to get the salient parts worked into the winning measure.

For instance, in addition to the income tax hike, Proposition 30 calls for an increase to the state sales tax to fund local public safety programs. If it were to pass but get fewer votes than Proposition 38, it makes sense that the income tax hike and the education funding tied to it would get the axe, while the sales tax and the public safety funding could pass into law. Clear as mud?

The California Legislative Analyst's Office, which is charged with providing nonpartisan fiscal and policy analysis of state bills and voter initiatives, would not hazard an opinion either way. Their official take is included in the voter information guide in a special section titled, "What Happens if Voters Approve Both Proposition 30 and Proposition 38?" Their answer is the measure with the most votes prevails.

It's unclear whether the Franchise Tax Board or the courts would simply step in to decide which pieces are valid, or whether someone would need to file a formal complaint first. Either way, that situation could mean delays and drive up the ultimate cost of the election. In any case, compared to the $5 billion at stake for schools, the amount spent figuring out what to do if both measures pass would probably look like pocket change.

To no one’s great surprise, neither campaign is encouraging people to vote for both measures. Still, the Munger cohort (Proposition 38) views the election as a ‘winner-take-all’ fight.

Meanwhile, at least one major stakeholder in the Proposition 30 campaign has indicated that they believe they could still pull out a partial victory if their measure passes but gets edged out by 38. The thinking goes thusly: if Proposition 38 gets the most votes, presumably the income tax portion of theirs goes into place. However, that still leaves the sales tax portion of Prop 30 and if push comes to shove, they would be willing to go to court to salvage what they can of the measure.

So, do you have your 'E' ticket to get on ‘Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride?