'Sea Level Rise': The Next Crapshoot

Speaker John A. Pérez appointed Assemblymember Rich Gordon to chair the newly formed Select Committee on Sea Level Rise & the California Economy.  A levelheaded and learned solon, Gordon will indeed have his hands full as the “sea level rise” portion of almost every Climate Action Plan is one of the most controversial areas targeted to help reduce greenhouse gasses (GHGs).

And he will have to somehow balance that with advancing the California economy... you know, economic development, job creation, growth and not chasing the remaining businesses out of the Golden State with even more onerous environmental regulation. I think lead into gold would be infinitely easier.

Why? The science surrounding “sea level rise” is far from exact. You can find whatever data you need to support whatever your position is on the climate action plan/global warming issue. If you’re a BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything), you can run around with teeth gnashing, waiving your ‘scientific research’ in everyone’s face. Conversely, if you are what's called a "global warming denier," you can find verified data to support that stance… and all positions in between. That’s why it’s the next big crapshoot.

In the interest of full disclosure, I am not a “denier.” Never have been. What I am, however, is a pragmatist. “Sea level rise” is gauging if/when the ocean will rise (due to melting polar ice caps among other boogeymen) and by how much over the next 100 years due to global warming. Another reason it’s a statistical and scientific crapshoot.

Here's the problem locally: Research says the ocean/bay waters will rise between (I am not making this up) three and 68 inches over the next century in the Bay Area. One map shows that in about 100 years (if the latter figure it to be believed), prime ocean front property will be second base at AT&T Park.

When he was tabbed by Perez, Gordon said, “I requested the formation of this select committee to review and address the challenges of climate change and sea level rise on ports and infrastructure, parks and other state lands, coastal agriculture and the fishing industry. After holding hearings throughout the state with potentially-impacted entities, the select committee will report back to the Assembly on key issues facing California, and discuss potential strategic legislative responses and recommendations for future budget actions.”

We will, for the sake of discussion, assume he also includes housing in this dialogue. Why? Housing can be devastated by this “sea level rise” scheme. One coastal city has already proposed (and thankfully struck down) a requirement that anyone remodeling, repairing, building, rehabbing or buying a home would have to furnish the city with a certificate (from, one assumes, some sort of expert entity) that could make a determination that their project/home/new bathroom would not be impacted by or itself impact the 100-year ‘ocean rise.’

Yes, your bathroom remodel had better not impact the three inches the sea is expected to rise within the next century. Facetious? Duh, but it’s based on accepted data. (Don’t believe me; doesn’t matter - Google it.)

As Gordon noted, “It is my hope this select committee will continue to examine these obstacles and help in the formation of a statewide response to sea level rise.” That obviously depends on whose data the Select Committee uses, believes in or needs to support their decisions and recommendations… reason #3 for the next big crapshoot.

Scenarios: What if the state agencies, cities and counties create burdensome regulations to stop/control housing production even further to address the catastrophe of ‘sea level rise’ and it turns out the bay and coastal waters increase all of three inches? The next gen of do-gooders, scientists, researchers, consultants, environmental junkies and civil service employees is going to feel quite foolish.

Conversely, what if the Chicken Little enviros are right? Finding a rowboat to get to city hall will be the least of your worries. My hope is that Gordon will slather large portions of practicality (for which is he is justifiably famous) into this process. If not, then ‘sea level rise’ will join the One Bay Area Plan in effectively fulfilling the adage, “we’re from the government and we’re here to help.”