Football Rankings: Best Case/Worst Case for Top 15

With the 2011 high school football season set to kick off on Friday, it’s tempting to wonder if San Mateo County programs can possibly match their fantastic showing of a year ago.

Terra Nova (Division III) and Sacred Heart Prep (Division IV) won Central Coast Section championships last fall, and Sequoia was the runner-up in Division II. Meanwhile, fellow Peninsula Athletic League members Jefferson and Half Moon Bay lost in semifinal thrillers.

Another outstanding postseason performance this year – particularly if it includes a deep Open Division run by West Catholic Athletic League power Serra – would no doubt signal that San Mateo County football is in a golden age.

As the journey begins for many programs with Zero Week games, the following is Patch’s preseason ranking of the top-15 teams in the county. Included are the best and worst case scenarios for each team.

1. SERRA: Best Case: A young but speedy defense blossoms, and the Padres streak to the WCAL crown and their first-ever berth in the CCS Open Division title game. Worst Case: The top opponents stop a run-heavy offense and batter an inexperienced defense, Serra finishes with a sub-.500 league record and narrowly misses an Open bid.

2. TERRA NOVA: Best Case: An Open Division berth is within range if the Tigers go 9-1 in the regular season, but they’d prefer to defend their Division III title. Worst Case: Terra Nova sees its two-year reign atop the PAL Bay end, but still makes the playoffs.

3. SACRED HEART: Best Case: A revamped unit gels and the Gators knock off Terra Nova to win their first PAL Bay championship. Worst Case: SHP loses the Valparaiso Bowl to Menlo, and then suffers an early CCS exit at the hands of its rival.

4. JEFFERSON: Best Case: The Indians validate their promotion to the PAL Bay by challenging for the championship behind a fierce defense. Worst Case: Jeff isn’t ready for the big boys, and the program’s progression stalls with a possible drop back to the PAL Ocean.

5. MENLO-ATHERTON: Best Case: A seasoned offensive backfield leads the Bears to a deep run in the CCS Division I playoffs. Worst Case: M-A starts slow like last year, but this time can’t recover and misses the postseason for the second time in three years.

6. BURLINGAME: Best Case: All the fresh faces gain confidence in the first half of the season, and the Panthers claim one of the PAL Bay’s four CCS bids. Worst Case: The loaded Bay proves too much, the Panthers go 1-4 or 0-5 and risk a demotion to the PAL Ocean.

7. MENLO: Best Case: A game-changing defense puts the Knights over the top; they win the PAL Ocean and challenge for the CCS Division IV title. Worst Case: A repeat of the 2010 season: a team that comes up just short in the Ocean, loses to SHP and suffers a first-round CCS defeat.

8. ARAGON: Best Case: The Dons run roughshod over their new PAL Ocean foes to earn a CCS spot and a quick return to the PAL Bay. Worst Case: The program’s slide continues; Aragon goes 2-3 in league games and loses to (gasp!) Hillsdale in its regular-season finale.

9. SEQUOIA: Best Case: The PAL Ocean newcomer becomes an instant bully, rolls to the league title and makes waves in CCS for the second straight year. Worst Case: The Cherokees lose to Aragon in their league opener, never find their rhythm and take a step backward with a 2-3 or 1-5 showing.

10. SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO: Best Case: The Warriors break a string of five straight sub-.500 seasons in league games, and even enter the PAL Ocean title hunt. Worst Case: South City again struggles, and then suffers the added embarassment of losing the Bell Game to rival El Camino.

11. HALF MOON BAY: Best Case: No Dominic Sena; no problem. A switch to a more balanced attack is seamless, and the Cougars again make a run at a CCS berth. Worst Case: An inability to move the ball wears down a small roster, and HMB finishes toward the bottom of the PAL Ocean.

12. WOODSIDE: Best Case: Last year’s 1-9 flop becomes a distant memory as the Wildcats win back-to-back non-league against Carlmont and San Mateo to gain confidence for the PAL Ocean campaign. Worst Case: Woodside loses those games and the season starts spiraling downward early.

13. HILLSDALE: Best Case: An experienced QB and savvy coach pay dividends as the Knights light up the scoreboard en route to their second PAL Lake championship in three years. Worst Case: The turnover bug hits, the defense springs several leaks and a 2-3 league season follows.

14. EL CAMINO: Best Case: The second coming of the 2007 season: a talented but thin team keeps everyone healthy and the Colts roll to a league title. Worst Case: Non-league games against M-A and Jefferson prove costly as a banged-up team never finds its stride in PAL Lake play.

15. CARLMONT: Best Case: Despite widespread losses to graduation, the Scots field another solid defense that powers them into contention in the PAL Lake. Worst Case: Carlmont struggles to find its identity and can’t compete with the leaders in an up-for-grabs league.