Open Primary Raises Political Questions

The election cycle of 2012 in California is unique for several reasons. The first is the results of the redistricting leading to the change in boundaries of both federal and state offices. One result of the redrawing by the initiative-created independent commission has been that in several instances two incumbent members wind up in the same newly redrawn district, and have to run against each other, perhaps in both the primary and general elections.

Beyond that, for the first time in recent memory, there is an open primary election in June in which all the candidates run against each other, not in separate political party elections.

Then in the subsequent general election, the top two primary finishers will run against each other, again without regard to political party affiliation. It will result in some districts having two Democrats against each other, two Republicans in others and some with the classic Democrat versus Republican in the general election. The minor parties will likely be squeezed out in this process.

The desired result of the open primary is that candidates will move to more moderate positions in order to attrach votes from all political parties in the primary. This moderation may result in a more centrist set of legislators instead of the drift toward more extreme candidates. Time will tell if this is the result.

The flip side of the question is that many districts will have highly competitive primaries, followed by highly competitive general elections, resulting in the need to raise more money, never a positive sign. Then candidates will have to decide how to allocate their resources...pour in the bulk for the primary to try and finish first, or spend just enough to finish in the top two and try to overcome a second place finish with greater resources for the general election?

Political consultants are looking at new district lines and new election dynamics and trying to properly position their candidate. The expertise of consultants will by tested with the new format. Stay tuned to see how they and their candidates adapt.