Colorado Election Survey: Gender Divide, Concerns About Violence

Colorado women are leaning "overwhelmingly" blue ahead of the Nov. 3 election, according to a new survey by the University of Colorado Boulder. The women's vote didn't tip the scales too heavily, however — Colorado appears to be neither a bright blue state nor a bright red state, but rather "some shade of purple," researchers said.

The university's nonpartisan American Politics Research Lab interviewed 800 Coloradans for its Fifth Annual Colorado Political Climate Survey, which was released Monday.

The women's vote has tipped the state toward high single-digit leads for Joe Biden, former Gov. John Hickenlooper and Democratic congressional picks, according to the report.

Anand Sokhey, the research lab's director, said the study shows "a pretty consistent Democratic lead across all of these races."

“But the gender gaps are enormous,” Sokhey said.

The poll, which was conducted Oct. 5 to Oct. 9, surveyed participants about four ballot measures and a variety of issues, including the nomination of a new Supreme Court justice, trust in mail-in ballots and faith in the electoral process.

The majority of Coloradans are confident the elections will be conducted fairly; however, three-quarters of respondents were worried about violence on or after Election Day, the research shows.

“A couple of years ago, I wouldn’t have even thought to have included a question like that,” Sokhey said. “Those numbers are a little stunning.”

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Biden and Hickenlooper in the lead

Biden has a 9-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely Colorado voters, the poll found:

• Biden: 47 percent
• Trump: 38 percent
• Other: 3 percent
• Undecided: 11 percent

Among women, 56 percent support Biden and 33 percent support Trump. Among men, Trump is in the lead, with 43 percent compared to Biden’s 39 percent.

The U.S. Senate race shows similar patterns, with Hickenlooper holding an 8-point lead over Sen. Cory Gardner among the respondents. Around 11 percent of those surveyed were undecided. Among women, Hickenlooper has a 15-point lead, but among men, the votes are split down the middle.

When asked how they would vote if an election for the U.S. House of Representatives race was held in their district, 47 percent of respondents said they would vote Democrat and 39 percent said they would vote Republican. Again, men favored Republican candidates — 46 percent to 33 percent — while women favored Democratic candidates 54 percent to 41 percent.

“You have seen a growing division for a while in which female voters are responding negatively to Trump’s leadership and rhetoric, and that is spilling down to some of the other races,” Sokhey said.

“It appears the female vote could play a very important part in this election.”

Abortion measure ‘too close to call’

Proposition 113, which would affirm Colorado’s entrance into the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, appears to have a comfortable lead, with 49 percent of respondents in favor and 34 percent opposed, the survey found.

Proposition 118, which would create a paid family and medical leave act allowing up to 12 weeks off, enjoys a sizable lead, with 65 percent of those surveyed intending to vote for it, while 22 percent said they’d vote ‘no.’

Meanwhile, Proposition 115, which would prohibit abortions after 22 weeks gestational age was “too close to call,” the survey found, with 45 percent opposing it and 41 percent supporting it.

For all three measures, many likely voters — 13 percent to 17 percent, depending on the item — hadn’t made up their mind.

Amendment B, a complicated property tax measure that would repeal the Gallagher Amendment, more than 36 percent of likely voters said they weren’t sure how they would vote.

“I think there’s plenty of time for the ballot measure campaigns to reach people,” Sokhey said. “People are definitely still making up their minds.”

Post-election violence a worry

When polled on matters related to the U.S. Supreme Court and confidence in the electoral process, Coloradans split largely on party lines, according to the report.

When asked if the winner of the presidential election should be the one to nominate a replacement for late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, 54 percent of all surveyed said ‘yes,’ 32 percent said ‘no,’ and 14 percent said they weren’t sure. Not surprisingly, 81 percent of Democrats agreed that the winner of the election should appoint a new justice, compared to 39 percent of Republicans.

A series of questions addressing confidence in the electoral process yielded mixed results: Two thirds of those surveyed said they had confidence in the mail-in voting system, including 82 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of Republicans and 62 percent of independents. A majority of Coloradans agreed that the coming elections will be “conducted fairly and accurately.” Yet only 57 percent agreed that if their preferred candidate did not win, they would view the winner as legitimate.

Around 71 percent of respondents said they are worried about violence on or after Election Day in other parts of the country.

“We have seen an uptick in rhetoric and hyper-partisanship and that has people concerned,” Sokhey said.

About the research

This is the fourth year the American Politics Research Lab has contracted with public opinion company YouGov to administer the survey to a representative sample of Coloradans. In past years the poll has been generally accurate in calling races and ballot measures — for example, in 2018 the poll accurately predicted a win for Governor Jared Polis.

The partisan splits – on the weighted data – are based on respondents’ self-reported partisanship at the time of the survey, using a 7-point scale. The researchers combined “leaning partisans” with stronger partisans.

“A lot of research has shown that leaning independents actually act like partisans,” Sokhey said.

The number of “pure independents” in Colorado is likely considerably lower than the 40 percent of voters who appear as unaffiliated in the voter rolls, the director said.

For the candidate and ballot questions, the sample was weighted to represent likely Colorado voters: 46 percent Democrats (or Democratic-leaning respondents), 40 percent Republicans (or Republican-leaning respondents) and 13.5 percent pure independents. The margin of error for that portion of the survey was 4.64 percent.

For the questions about electoral process and legitimacy, the sample was weighted to represent Colorado residents in general: 46 percent Democrats (or Democratic-leaning respondents), 39 percent Republicans (or Republican-leaning respondents) and 15.5 percent pure independents. The margin of error for that portion of the survey was 4.55 percent.