Strong El Niño Signals Bad Winter Ahead In CT: Winter Forecast

CONNECTICUT — Connecticut could be in for a pretty severe winter due to a strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean, according to a new long-range forecast.

This winter's weather in the Northeast is expected to be much different than last winter across most of New England and the mid-Atlantic, AccuWeather predicted. According to the forecaster's 2023-24 winter outlook, a strong El Niño could bring multiple nor'easters to the region in January and February.

"While Buffalo may not receive as much snow as it did last winter, the millions of people who live along the Interstate 95 corridor are predicted to see more powder than they did during the 2022-2023 season," according to the AccuWeather report.

During El Niño winters, warm water moves closer to the west coast of South America, pushing the Pacific jet stream farther north. That trend allows moist air to enter the Southeast bringing heavy rain. When those storms move into the colder climate in the Northeast, the rain can turn to snow.

The three previous New England winters have all been influenced by La Niña, or colder water near the west coast of South America. La Niña winters in New England can be cold and less snowy due to drier air dipping down from the Arctic.

A strong El Niño could also bring colder air to New England — bad news for people struggling to pay increasing utility rates.

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The AccuWeather prediction differs from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, which as of this week was forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures in December, January and February. Those three months could have more precipitation than normal, according to the weather service, but only in southern Connecticut and Rhode Island and the southeastern part of Massachusetts.