Brad Field, NBC CT's Chief Meteorologist, Visits Granby Senior Center

Brad Field, Chief Meteorologist at NBC Connecticut, was the speaker at a recent Senior Men’s Breakfast at the Granby Senior Center. Field graduated from the Lowell Technological Institute, now the University of Massachusetts Lowell, with a degree in Meteorology.

He and his family came to Granby in 1994. He is co-President of the Granby High School Football Supporters and has coached Granby Little League for ten consecutive years. Although usually committed to the 5, 6 and 11 o clock evening broadcasts, he adjusts his vacation time to coach teams throughout the spring, summer and fall.

Following college, he was employed by the Weather Services Corporation, a long range forecasting and climate prediction company. There were three divisions: Commodities, Media and Operations, each of which served an interesting function. 

The Commodities Division forecast weather for national and international agricultural and commodity services. Orange growers in Florida wanted to know whether the temperature would be 29 or 33 degrees. Cocoa farmers in Brazil were concerned with the possible effects of climate change. Midwest wheat farmers were interested in any weather that might affect their harvest. 

The Operations Division forecast weather primarily for utilities and municipalities.  They would alert CL&P, their largest client, to the possibility of lightning affecting their transformers, the probability of ice accumulating on power lines or wind causing branches to fall on wires.

The Department of Transportation was primarily concerned with the effect of inclement weather on state highways. Field noted that, during a particular storm, there may be no snow accumulation forecast for Groton, while Hartford could anticipate 6 inches of snow later turning to ice.A foot of snow might be forecast for Torrington. The highway department in Groton would need to take no action but Hartford would need to prepare to plow with sand and salt. Torrington could get by with just plows. 

Many schools also relied on the Operations Division for early alerts preceding school cancellations. A school administrator might be advised that, although one part of town was quiet, there were massive ice problems in the higher elevations. 

Field worked in the Media division which provided forecasts for radio and television. He forecast and reported the weather on major radio stations in Minneapolis, Kansas City, Atlanta and Boston, including the Blizzard of ’78.   

Talking about the complexities of his work, Field comments: "You have storms being born, storms dying, strengthening, weakening, speeding up, slowing down.  You have lower clouds moving east at ten miles an hour and higher clouds moving west at 50 miles an hour.  Meanwhile the earth is rotating and revolving around the sun and you have to figure out what all this chaos will mean tomorrow, and the days following."

When Field speaks of weather conditions, his oft repeated tenet is "3.7 degrees per thousand" by which he means that, in a standard atmosphere, you lose 3.7 degrees F for every thousand feet above mean sea level. It is this fact that often engenders criticism of his forecasts. 

For example, the difference in elevation between the areas (1) of Granby center toward the Simsbury line and (2) West and North Granby could be as much as 600 – 700 feet with a consequent, significant, variation in weather. During the great storm of April Fool’s Day, 1997, Field measured 28 inches of snow at his home on Silkey Heights. At the time there was as little as 13 inches in Granby center. So he is on television reporting “In North Granby there was 28 inches of snow” while people living in the center of Granby are calling him barmy! 

Summer thunderstorms are particularly troublesome. He will forecast “partly cloudy with the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.” So one person is grilling outdoors and all he sees is a black cloud going by. A little distance away, lightning is striking the ground and rain is coming down in sheets. The outdoor chef is asking, “So, where is the storm?” while others in another part of town are experiencing a monsoon. Field says he is on the air trying to explain this in a logical manner while someone is talking in his ear saying “Hurry Up! Hurry Up!”

During an ice storm about three winters ago, he noted that trees were falling down in the higher elevations while the center was relatively quiet. Some were urging cancellations; others were wondering what the fuss was. Field says “if my weather is not happening at your house then my forecast is wrong”. 

Field queried the group as to what weather phenomenon kills more people than any other on a yearly basis. One might guess tornadoes but it is actually lightning. He notes that lightning picks off people, mostly men, one by one, on golf courses; men on golf courses standing in the open with maybe a three iron (aka a lightning rod) poised in the air over their heads.

Still, we are the most tornado-prone nation on earth. The U.S. averages at least 10 times more twisters each year than any other country. Field explains “We are in the mid-latitudes where cold air moving south from the North Pole collides with warm air moving north from the Equator while winds from the Gulf of Mexico add moisture to the stormy mix”.  Since there are no east-west mountain ranges to interfere, large air masses move freely over the continent, creating tornadoes and other storm disturbances. 

So what does Field do on a typical day?  He arrives at the station about 2:30 pm and from 2:30 to 4:00 pm he does his science stuff – reading computers and analyzing data from Weather Services International. He figures out what the weather will be tomorrow and the following days by reviewing temperature and jet stream patterns and computer modeling. He is continuously receiving all variations of weather data from NEXRAD, a network of 159 high-resolution Doppler weather radars operated by the National Weather Service. A NEXRAD 360 degree sweep of the atmosphere (every six minutes) will detect precipitation and atmospheric movement (wind) and submit weather data that is only seconds old (If you are watching a tornado move, timing becomes critical). 

Field does not like to use percentage chances for weather occurrences – 50% chance of rain or 20% chance of a shower; same with partly cloudy, partly sunny.  He asks, “Is it more than half or less than half of the whole part?”  Field prefers verbiage – an isolated shower, a few scattered showers or numerous showers. He might say a mix of sun and a few clouds, or mostly sunny, or a mix of clouds with a little bit of sun. He feels he gives his viewers have a better understanding of just what to expect. 

Around 4 he figures out what maps he is going to use for the 5 o’clock broadcast.  At 5 he is on the air ready or not.  Field interjects, “things go wrong in life; things go wrong at home, cars break down, computers crash, things happen” but, at 5, there is no saying “I’m not ready”.  He might not be ready but he is standing there looking at a live television camera (one envisions Field, late for work, listening to the weather forecast on the radio trying to take notes). 

From 5 to 6:30 he broadcasts his forecast - all off the top of his head. There is no script. Field says it is like reading a book. You read the book and then tell someone about what you read. After the show, he answers email, gives presentations to various organizations and generally involves himself in the community. 

One of his pet peeves is the spurious naming of storms in the local market. He cites a November 2011 headline story “WFSB Channel 3 Residents prepare for Winter Storm Alfred”. He says that storm was not named Alfred.  It did not have a name. The only organization allowed to name storms is the National Hurricane Center.

This permits a common understanding among people across the country as to which storm is being referenced. For example, everyone understands that Storm Andrew was the category 5 storm that devastated Florida. Yet Field asserts that Channel 3 continues to name storms and create confusion even though they have been specifically told to stop the practice.

The problem is that Channel 3 arbitrarily designates a storm as “Alfred” but Channel 30 prefers “Donald” while Channel 8 is partial to “Isaac,” three names for the same storm arriving on the same day. 

At the end of his presentation there was the inevitable question as to what he thinks about global warming. He equivocated, saying, “I think it is important as a scientist that you maintain your credibility as a scientist. I don’t think you should know what my party affiliation is by listening to my weather forecast.  Unfortunately that is what has become of the whole global warming issue. The people that believe in global warming – there is no question about it – are overwhelmingly democrats. Those believing that it is part of a normal earth cycle are typically republicans.”

He continues “it is dangerous for me to get into it because there are actually people in the green party now that are trying to “out” meteorologists that hesitate to preach global warming, referring to them as “climate ‘deniers.’” Field concludes, “You can put brilliant people on both sides of the debate and each will make extremely good and logical cases for their point of view. You can also read Newsweek and Time magazine articles from the 70s that warn of a coming ice age.”

He didn’t commit himself but one might conclude that he leans toward the normal cycle response.     

So he talks in front of the camera without a script. He puts together his forecast and then goes on the air and wings it – live!  Watch him. Watch his eyes. How does he do that?  He doesn’t falter, repeat himself, or seem to lose his train of thought even while the producer is talking over him into his ear. He keeps his cool, smooth, hand on a map pointing to some town or weather condition, and just talks. The absence of a script probably makes him more vulnerable but he knows what he is doing and has a passion for it.

His ability to speak with authenticity and spontaneity has enabled him to build a rapport with his audience for 29 years. He is as enthusiastic about his forecasting for the residents of Connecticut as he is for the youth of Granby. He is one of us.