New Canaan Assured Of State Playoff Berth With Win Over Darien

Even without playing last week, the New Canaan football team received some good news.

Avon's 7-0 loss to Gilbert/Northwest Regional on Saturday  has guaranteed the Rams a berth in the CIAC Class L state  playoffs if they beat Darien in the Turkey Bowl on Thursday.

Here are the rankings in Class L heading into the Thanksgiving games and the final opponent (all seven teams are 8-1):

3. Hand 1110 vs. Guilford (5-4)
4. Wethersfield 1110 vs. Newington (0-9)
5. Naugatuck 1050 vs.Ansonia (9-0)
6. North Haven 1030 vs. Amity (4-5)
7. Maloney 1010 vs. Platt (7-2)
8. Bristol Eastern 1010 vs. Bristol Central (1-8)
9. New Canaan 990 vs. Darien (9-0)

A loss by any one of the six teams ahead of  New Canaan assures the Rams a postseason spot with a victory over the Blue Wave.

But for the sake of the argument, let's assume all six win. Here's what the updated rankings would look like with the bonus points and guaranteed bonus points factored in:

3. Hand 1270
4. Naugatuck 1240
5. Wethersfield 1220
6. North Haven 1200
6. New Canaan 1200
8. Maloney 1190
9. Bristol Eastern 1120

The only way for New Canaan (40 potential bonus points) to now miss the playoffs is to slip to ninth in the standings behind Bristol Eastern (80 potential bonus points).

Theoretically, the best Bristol Eastern could do is tie the Rams with 1,200 points. For that to happen, the Lancers have to win all eight of their bonus games and the Rams have to lose all four of theirs.

But here's the rub: one of those games is Newington vs. Wethersfield (Bristol Eastern beat Newington, which is 1-8).

New Canaan wins regardless of the outcome of that game. If Newington pulls the upset, the Rams are in based on the  above scenario.

If Wethersfield wins, Bristol Eastern loses the 10 bonus points, and it now becomes mathematically impossible for the Lancers to catch New Canaan.

So, here's the simple mantra for the Rams: win, and they're in.