Study: Declining Enrollment at Sandy Hook Elementary Not Due to Tragedy

Editor’s Note: We first ran this story on May 28 but ICYMI here’s why enrollment at Sandy Hook Elementary School is declining. 

By REBECCA CARNES (Open Post)

Although data shows a temporary disruption in enrollment patterns at Sandy Hook Elementary School during the 2013-14 school year, the 2012 tragedy did not deter new students from entering the school, according to an enrollment study commissioned by the Newtown School district.

The lower-than-normal enrollment at the school for 2013-14 indicates that some students who were at Sandy Hook as of Oct. 2012 (when enrollment numbers are collected), left Sandy Hook by the next year - whether they enrolled in private schools, moved elsewhere in Newtown, moved out of district, or made some other change. But incoming student enrollment did not decline.

School Superintendent Dr. Joseph Erardi said he agrees with the study’s findings, explaining that the declining enrollment at Sandy Hook Elementary and throughout the Newtown school district is not based on the 2012 tragedy, but was happening prior to that date.

Eradi added that school districts in suburban and rural areas of Connecticut are facing similar declines as seen in Newtown. Erardi said he plans to further discuss the impact of the Sandy Hook tragedy on enrollment at tonight’s 7:30 p.m. community forum at the Newtown High School lecture hall.

With enrollment dropping within Newtown Schools by about 200 students per year, Newtown’s elementary school’s (K-4) have showed the greatest decrease, with enrollment down 34 percent during the past 12 years. Newtown’s K-12 enrollment has declined from its 2006-07 peak of 5,609 students to just under 4,700 currently. Newtown high schoolers have the most students per grade (more than 400) and Newtown’s elementary students have the least number of students per grade (fewer than 300).

Authors of the study struggled to make enrollment projections due to the Sandy Hook tragedy because it posed “unique disturbances to enrollment trends in 2012-13, not just in its tragic loss of first graders, but also the movement of students that followed,” the report said. Because of the movement from Sandy Hook to Chalk Hill in Monroe, some parents moved their children from public to private school.

The “unique circumstances affecting Newtown’s elementary schools for the past two years and for the next two years as the new Sandy Hook school comes on-line, it is particularly difficult to project individual elementary school enrollments at this time,” the study by Milone & MacBroom stated.

But since 2013-14 - the school year following the tragedy - enrollment at Sandy Hook seems to have “re-set” itself, quickly returning to a pattern similar to the several years leading up to December 2012.

“Because of that we are inclined to attribute the continued decline in enrollment in 2014-15 to natural decrease, rather than clear impacts from the tragedy,” the study stated.

The authors went on to state that its projected medium-growth scenario is recommended for use when making future plans for the school district. Newtown is considering closing one of its seven schools, not including Sandy Hook Elementary or Newtown High School. The medium scenario shows a five year projection of K-4th dropping about 13 percent; 5th-6th dropping 22 percent; 7th & 8th dropping 26 percent; and 9th - 12th dropping about 12 percent.

The study points out that school district officials in weighing their options, should take into account that the opening of the new Sandy Hook School could significantly alter projections because the new school could attract new families to the Sandy Hook district.

According to the realtors group, the study noted that the Sandy Hook tragedy had small, temporary effect on the local housing market. The tragedy halted sales for a very short period, it stated, adding that while some families chose to move away from the Sandy Hook district to avoid Chalk Hill, there are also instances of families seeking to buy in the Sandy Hook district because they know the new facility is coming. The town’s pre-kindergarten program will be housed at the new Sandy Hook Elementary School for the 2016-17 school year.

A separate, internal school enrollment study will be revealed at the June 2nd Board of Education meeting as board members deliberate on whether a school needs to be closed and if so, which one.

A public information session on enrollment and a possible school closing is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. tonight (May 28th) at the N.H.S. lecture hall with School Superintendent Dr. Joseph Erardi and members of the Board of Education.

Patch File Photo