Hartford/Tolland County's Best-Case Scenario For Coronavirus

HARTFORD/TOLLAND COUNTIES, CT — Public officials in Tolland and Hartford counties hope that "social distancing" measures enacted at the state and local levels in recent weeks are helping to "flatten the curve" of coronavirus infection.

According to a chart published by The New York Times, citing researchers Sen Pei and Jeffrey Shaman at Columbia University, failing to observe "control measures" in northern Connecticut could create of spike of more than 110,000 cases by mid-May, versus a few hundred if the distancing guidelines are followed.

Areas of the country that currently do not have large clusters of cases like Tolland and Hartford could still avoid the worst of the outbreak after imposing measures like closing schools and banning mass gatherings, researchers said.

That "best-case scenario" is bolstered by Gov. Ned Lamont's "Stay Safe, Stay Home" executive order that went into effect Monday night. Lamont also emphasized the impact social distancing would have on day-to-day business and the outbreak curve in Connecticut.

Here are the projected cases in Tolland County, according to the Columbia curve:

• With strict control measures, the estimated infection rate by May 1 would be 0.1 percent of the population and a total infected number of people in the low hundreds. The peak would come after July 31.
• With some control measures, the estimated infection rate by May 1 would be 0.6 percent with the infected number of people at 1,000, and a predicted peak in mid-June.
• With "no transmission reductions" in place, the estimated infection rate by May 1 would be 11 percent and 17,000 people, and infections would peak in mid-May.

Here are the projected cases in Hartford County, according to the Columbia curve:

• With severe control measures, the estimated infection rate by May 1 would be less than a percentage point and in the low hundreds in terms of people.
• Under some control measures, the estimated infection rate by May 1 would be 0.5 percent and 4,900 people with a predicted to peak in mid-June.
• With no transmission reductions, the estimated infection rate by May 1 would be 12 percent with an infected people totaling 100,000. The predicted to peak is mid-May.
• Outdoor recreation is being promoted with proper distancing.

Tolland and Hartford counties seem to have strict practices in place, according to Michael Purcaro the town administrator and emergency management director for the town of Vernon and former chief administrative officer for the Connecticut Department of Public Health.

He said northern Connecitucut has been proactive as phrases such as "social distancing" and "flattening the curve" are "showing up frequently."

He said understanding the guidelines is the first step.

"Social distancing is a crucial protective practice used for preventing and slowing the spread of contagious illnesses such as COVID-19 — the coronavirus," he said. COVID-19 can spread rapidly through coughing, sneezing and close contact. By minimizing the amount of close contact we have with others, we reduce our chances of catching the virus and spreading it to our loved ones and within our community."

Purcaro said "flattening the curve" refers to using "protective practices like social distancing" to slow the rate of coronavirus infection.

"If a large number of people become severely ill with COVID-19 over a short period of time, this could create a surge and overwhelm a hospital or health care system, resulting in a shortage of hospital beds, medical equipment and health care providers. Efforts that help stop COVID-19 from spreading rapidly – like social distancing – help keep the number of people who are sick at one time as low as possible."

He continued, "We, as government leaders, have a duty to provide the public with timely and credible information. We encourage residents to obtain additional information from official sources such as the Connecticut Department of Public Health and Federal Centers for Disease Control. From a State perspective, we are blessed and grateful for our resident public health experts like State Epidemiologist Dr. Matthew Cartter, his team at the State health department, and our many local public health directors who are working tirelessly to protect our health."

(Chris Dehnel/Patch)

Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia, told the Times it's all "requiring sacrifices we haven’t seen since World War II," because, "There's no easy way out."

Vernon Superindendent of Schools Joseph Macary agreed and said education systems in the region are prepared to utilize online and remote learning for the duration of the school year if that's what it takes.

Several other social distancing measures are in place in Tolland and Hartford counties.

Here are some examples:

• Schools are closed until at least April 20, with system in place to extend remote learning.
• Vernon staged a crucial town meeting on Wednesday via teleconference with drive-up voting. More than 50 residents voted through closed windows outside town hall.
• In Manchester, PetSmart was setting up curbside pickups for pet owners. Maggie McFly's restaurant and regional produce distributor Freshpoint teamed up Thursday to offer "Essentials Kits" of to keep families supplied during the coronavirus pandemic.
• Manchester parks officials, seeing large groups congregating, took to measures like removing basketball hoops, locking pickle ball and tennis courts and fencing off playscapes to promote social distancing.
• Southington police took the lead on offering accident reports via e-mail and limiting lobby visits and fingerprinting services. Many departments have adopted similar policies.
• Willimantic Waste, which serves several Tolland County municipalities, has ceased all curbside bulky waste/metal collections and told drivers drivers to stay in their vehicles and not handle the trash or recyclables. Tolland residents are being urged to keep their trash inside the bins.
• As of Friday, the Tolland Public Library will no longer be offering curbside service due to the "changing situation of the COVID-19 outbreak."
• South Windsor closed its playgrounds.
• Senior centers are closed in the area.
• The Enfield library reference staff has eBooks and eAudiobooks on its overdrive platform and eMagazines, movies and music are also available. The children's staff has been recording story times and posting them to Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/enfieldpubliclibrary/
• Enfield library assistant Erica Leahy started a Ukulele Club at the Senior Center earlier this month. To keep the club going while maintaining social distancing, she has put together a virtual meeting using Zoom teleconferencing. The Senior Center has been posting exercise videos to our Facebook page, since classes can’t meet in person.

Even a "necessary" business is going to an extreme. Trader Joe's in Manchester is sanittizing each cart indivdually before it enters the store. Trader Joe's crew member Damian Ladd said the practice has been going on for about two weeks.

So, is it all working?

"I think it is," South Windsor Police Department spokesman Mark Cleverdon said. "We've noticed the calls to service drop drastically since the guidelines were put into place. We see people at parks, but at distances. It seems people are mostly going to the grocery store then back home. It all seems to be going well."

John Littell, the emergency management director and fire chief in Tolland said it bluntly, also citing a drop in calls.

"People are starting to keep it real," he said.