July in Review

July 2024 was one of the most tumultuous months in American presidential history. An assassination attempt on former president and current GOP contender for re-election Donald Trump barely missed its mark. Trump survived and will face his Democratic challenger, but not, as he and others had expected, incumbent Joe Biden who was the victim of a clumsy but successful palace coup. Faced with the choice of retiring voluntarily or being humiliated by his congressional allies who threatened to remove him by invoking the 25th Amendment, a public admission that his colleagues considered him mentally unfit, Biden unceremoniously told the nation he would not seek re-election.

Suddenly, without a single primary vote cast in her favor, Vice President Kamala Harris was off to the races, flying to one city after another and, like Biden, making speeches but not taking questions, giving interviews, or holding pressers. More than ten days after Biden’s resignation, Harris has yet to name a Vice President to join her on the ticket. For those on Harris’ brief list, accepting the Vice Presidency would carry with it at least a 50-50 chance of failure, a reality that may dim their enthusiasm. Or working for the tyrannical Harris might create apprehension. The turnover in her Attorney General’s office was high and as one former intern relayed, Harris used “F-bombs” and other profanity constantly in her berating of underlings. Harris instructed her entire staff to stand every morning as she entered the office and say, “Good Morning, General.”

But, if Harris prevails, the Vice Presidency would, for most under consideration---U.S. Senators and major states’ powerful governors---represent a demotion. As America’s first Vice President John Adams, who served under President George Washington, said the Vice President is “the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived.” Harris is expected to reveal her choice on August 6 in Philadelphia which leads political talking heads to conclude that Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has the inside track.

Voters must figure out what the dizzying sequence of events means. Before Biden’s July 21 withdrawal, voters knew exactly what their choice was. Trump and Biden had each served one four-year term as president; their records whether good or bad in voters’ eyes, were a matter of official White House record. But with Harris now the certain Democratic nominee---on August 2, she received enough delegates in online voting to sew it up--- her amazing transformation from the least popular Vice President in history to her party’s and perhaps the western world’s savior has fully evolved.

Slightly more than a year ago in June, 2023, Harris had a net favorability rating of -17%, the lowest in NBC polling’s history. Today, she is heralded in the establishment media as a potential heroine. With her support among the elite, and voters who will choose her because she is a diverse candidate, plus the never-Trumpers that may either stay home or cast a protest ballot, Harris could win and that would leave the border wide open. Although Harris’ supporters are pushing back against the “border czar” title that Biden gave her, she never lifted a finger to stem the flow of illegal immigrants and not once spoke out against the invasion. After Harris suggested that Biden was a racist during the 2019 Democratic debate and Jill Biden, post-debate, told Harris to “Go f--- yourself,” no love was lost among the three. Harris was furious after Biden anointed her the border czar; she knew it was a thankless, dead-end assignment.

The next one hundred days could hold more surprises, and any outcome in November is possible.

Joe Guzzardi is an Institute for Sound Public Policy analyst who has written about immigration for more than 30 years. Contact him at jguzzardi@ifspp.org