Snowy Winter Increasingly Likely For DC: Forecast

WASHINGTON, DC -- This winter may bring plenty of snow to D.C., a change from the last few years, according to a new forecast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has announced its annual winter outlook this week, and because of a likely El Nino system there is expected to be above average amounts of precipitation in our region, according to a Washington Post report.

While we're also expected to have a mild winter, the greater levels of precipitation should lend itself to more snow than average, and the Mid-Atlantic region typically depends on the strength of El Nino when it comes to snowfall.

The last El Nino did result in "Snowzilla" in 2015-16, so we could get one. However, this will be a relatively weak El Nino, so don't expect to get pounded with blizzards throughout the season.

The rest of the country may get less snow because they're forecasted to be warmer than normal, whereas our temperatures should be about average. Forecasters say that no part of the country will be colder than average based on current forecasts.

Of course, these are early forecasts that could prove to be wildly off-base. But if you want an idea of what we're expecting this coming winter, NOAA says keep your snowshoes handy.

“We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the agency's Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

If you're wondering what El Nino means, according to the NWS it is an "ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific." During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North, the National Weather Service says.

Most of the country is looking warmer than normal this winter and the NWS stresses that "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures."

As for precipitation potential, New York is in the normal range.

So How Much Snow Are We Getting This Winter?

Several publications, including the Farmers' Almanac, will make long-range snowfall predictions but the National Weather Service says that is basically impossible to do.

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur," the National Weather Service states.

See related: Brutal Or Mild: Almanacs Give Polar Opposite NY Winter Forecasts

Several Long-Range Winter Forecasts Have Been Released

The National Weather Service's winter prediction comes six weeks after the Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmers' Almanac made their winter projections.

The Old Farmer's Almanac, which released its forecast in late August, predicts a warm, wet winter with less snow than normal in the Northeast. But the Farmer's Almanac, which made its prediction in September, offers a much bleaker outlook.

The high-points from the Farmer's Almanac winter prediction for New York include:

• Colder than normal temperatures.
• More snowfall than normal.
• Bitter cold, winds and snow from mid-February.
• Cold to keep its grip on the region after the official start of spring.

The Old Farmer's Almanac prediction for the Northeast is that we can expect to avoid a deep freeze and, though it's going to rain, most of that precipitation won't be frozen.

It appears the National Weather Service and the Old Farmers' Almanac are on the same page, while only the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a cold and snowy winter.

The Weather Channel in its long-range forecast for November, December and January predicts above average temps for the Northeast in November and December but says that January will be colder than normal.

We'll know by April 1 who was right. There are only 133 days until Spring 2019!

With reporting by Adam Nichols and Brian McCready/Patch

Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 25: A newly married couple pose for a picture in the snow on the first workday following a blizzard that set a new single-day record for snowfall in both New York and Washington D.C. on January 25, 2016 in New York City. The day long blizzard on Saturday caused the shutdown of roadways in New York City and parts of the subway system as heavy snow and high winds paralysed parts of the city. The storm left 26.8 inches in Manhattan, the second most recorded since 1869. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)