Heavy Rains, High Winds Anticipated This Weekend

The large area of high pressure that has been keeping Florida dry this week
will be moving toward the mid-Atlantic coast on this weekend. As a result, winds will shift to an easterly direction, which will help to increase moisture by Saturday afternoon and rain chances will begin to increase as well, according to Bloomingdale East resident Dan Noah, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service, Ruskin station.

Noah said that, by late Saturday into Sunday, an old frontal boundary south of the state will begin to shift back north and, at the same time, some upper level energy will be moving through the area. 

Models have been hinting for a few days now that, as this upper-level energy passes over the frontal boundary, a surface low will begin to develop along it sometime Sunday night into Monday. The latest model runs place it anywhere from the Bahamas to just northwest of Cuba on Sunday.

"While this low will not necessarily by 'tropical' in nature, we can expect
much of the same effects that we'd see with a tropical depression or storm," said Noah in a press release issued earlier today. "With this in mind, here in Florida we can expect a sharp increase in rain chances on Sunday, likely lasting into early next week as this low slowly heads northward. We can also expect an increase in winds for the start of the
weekend (in the 25 to 35 mph range offshore and 20 to 30 mph range inland).

Major impacts:

• Heavy rain. Whether the east or the west coast gets the heaviest rainfall will be dependent on where this low actually forms/tracks.  But based on the best forecast, the latest estimates are somewhere in the 3- to 7-inch range on the east coast of Florida and 1- to 3-inch range on the west and southwest coast. Note that a slight change in the forecast track of the low may shift some of the heavier rain into the central or possibly western portions of the peninsula.
• Strong winds. There already have been some brief periods of wind gusts today, and this trend will continue into Friday with further increases on Saturday (most likely into the 15 to 25 mph range).  These strong winds, even stronger offshore and over the bay, will continue through early next week.
• Building seas. With the increase in winds, the seas likely will increase
  to around 5 to 7 feet well offshore.

For more information, visit the National Weather Service.