Tropical 'Threat' Eyed Near FL Days Ahead Of Start To 2026 Hurricane Season: Forecasters

Update: Saturday, 7:59 p.m.

Despite forecasts calling for a “below average” 2026 hurricane season, all eyes are already on warm Gulf and southwest Atlantic waters.

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Days ahead of the start to the hurricane season, which kicks off June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, AccuWeather forecasters are watching what they call an emerging tropical "threat" near Florida.

Sea surface temperatures in the area are running above average for this time of year, within the 80-degree range, the threshold generally needed for tropical development, AccuWeather said.

And conditions in this area — from Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula to the waters near Florida — could become more favorable for tropical development in coming days, forecasters said.

“While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic,” AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. “Climatologically, this region can experience early-season tropical development.”

The highest chance for tropical development is expected during the middle to the latter part of next week, AccuWeather’s team said.

“The chance of development remains very low in the short term due to strong wind shear,” DaSilva added. “However, as the shear relaxes, conditions could become more favorable for an area of low pressure to develop in the Gulf or the western Caribbean.”

Going into the hurricane season, most major forecasters called for a “below average” hurricane season.

A developing El Niño — and a potential "Super El Niño" — will be one of the biggest forces driving the hurricane season this year.

When sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual, we get La Niña. This summer is predicted to have warmer sea temperatures, forecasters say, and we are likely to have an El Niño pattern.

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, but much of the activity occurs from mid-August through early October. With the timing of the El Niño, that would make for fewer storms during the second-half of the season.

The historical average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes during a hurricane season.

Here’s what major meteorological teams are forecasting for 2026:

AccuWeather

• Named Storms: 11 to 16
• Hurricanes: 3 to 6
• Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 1 to 3
• Direct Impact to the U.S.: 3 to 5

Climate Adaptation Center

• Named Storms: 12
• Hurricanes: 5
• Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 2

Colorado State University

• Named Storms: 13
• Hurricanes: 6
• Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 2

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

• Named Storms: 8 to 14
• Hurricanes: 4 to 7
• Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher): 2 to 4

See Also:

• Hurricane Season Forecast Focuses On Threats To FL
• Developing El Niño Could Reach Historic Strength
• 2026 Hurricane Forecast: Up To 4 Major Storms Expected In Atlantic
• 'Super El Niño' Could Form In Atlantic: What It Means For FL Hurricane Season
• 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names: What Storms Will Be Called This Season
• NOAA Releases 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Predictions As El Niño Returns