Atlantic Tropical Disturbance May Develop More; No Likely Threat to Florida, Forecasters Say

TAMPA BAY, FL — A tropical disturbance churning in the eastern Caribbean Sea has been given 70 percent chance of developing more over the next five days. The good news is the storm isn’t likely to pose a threat to Florida or the Tampa Bay area.

As of 2 p.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center, said the storm was not showing signs of “closed surface circulation.” Even so, some gradual development is possible over the next day or so. The likelihood of development is anticipated to increase when the storm makes its way into the western Caribbean Sea over the next few days.

Should the storm develop enough to earn named status, it would become the fifth of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season to do so. Its name would be Earl. As of Sunday, forecasters anticipated the storm would remain on a westward path, which could bring it over the Yucatan Peninsula sometime next week.

A second disturbance that had been under watch by the hurricane center in the Atlantic had fizzled out as of 2 p.m. Sunday.

So far this year, the only named storm that created concern for Tampa Bay was Tropical Storm Colin. That storm passed by in early June, dumping lots of water and creating some flooding in the region.

The Tampa Bay area hasn’t been struck by a hurricane in more than 90 years. The last major storm to come close to the region was Hurricane Charley back in August 2004. That category 4 storm ripped through Charlotte County, leaving four people dead in its wake and an estimated 11,000 homes damaged.

While Tampa Bay has been lucky for a long time, experts say the streak isn’t likely to last. It’s not a question of if, but when, forecasters say.

To get ready, residents are urged to create their own emergency kits, including food and water for at least three days. They should also know their evacuation routes, have their renter or homeowner’s insurance documents handy and should have a plan on where to go and what to do if a storm strikes.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center