2 Atlantic Tropical Disturbances Continue Westward March

TAMPA BAY, FL — The two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean have each been given about a 40 percent chance of further development over the next few days as they continue edging westward. While it’s still too early to tell what, if any, impact the storms will have on Tampa Bay or Florida, forecasters are watching them closely.

The first disturbance was located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles as of Saturday morning. The tropical wave is moving west between 25 and 30 mph. The hurricane center anticipates any further development to be slowed by the system's rapid motion, but says it has a 40 percent chance of developing over the next five days.

While immediate development of this system isn’t likely, its eventual arrival in warmer waters could change that. “By the middle of next week, the disturbance is expected to be in the west Caribbean Sea, here conditions could become more conducive for development,” the center wrote in its 8 a.m. Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook report.

The second disturbance, a tropical wave and a low pressure system, remained a couple hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde Saturday morning. The storm had become less organized overnight, but forecasters say there is still a 40 percent chance of development over the next day or two. The hurricane center said the storm is expected to encounter less favorable conditions for development when it enters the central tropical Atlantic.

Should the storms develop more, they would become the fifth and sixth named storms of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Their names would be Earl and Fiona, respectively.

So far this year, the only named storm that created concern for Tampa Bay was Tropical Storm Colin. That storm passed by in early June, dumping lots of rain as it did.

The Tampa Bay area hasn’t been struck by a hurricane in more than 90 years. The last major storm to come close to the region was Hurricane Charley back in August 2004. That category 4 storm ripped through Charlotte County, leaving four people dead in its wake and an estimated 11,000 homes damaged.

While Tampa Bay has been lucky for a long time, experts say the streak isn’t likely to last. It’s not a question of if, but when, forecasters say.

To get ready, residents are urged to create their own emergency kits, including food and water for at least three days. They should also know their evacuation routes, have their renter or homeowner’s insurance documents handy and should have a plan on where to go and what to do if a storm strikes.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Graphic courtesy of the National Hurricane Center