It’s about a week into the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which kicked off June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
While the waters are quiet right now — the National Hurricane Center said no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days — storms aren’t unheard of this early in the season.
And sea surface temperatures in waters near Florida are running above average for this time of year, within the 80-degree range, the threshold generally needed for tropical development, AccuWeather forecasters said.
“While we always monitor the tropics for potential threats, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the central and eastern Gulf and the southwestern Atlantic,” AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said. “Climatologically, this region can experience early-season tropical development.”
With the hurricane season underway, here are five things Floridians should know:
1. Forecasters are calling for a below-average season.
The historical average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes during a hurricane season, but major forecasters are predicting much less this year.
Here’s what major meteorological teams are forecasting for 2026:
A developing El Niño — and a potential "Super El Niño" — will be one of the biggest forces driving the hurricane season this year.
When sea surface temperatures are cooler than usual, we get La Niña. This summer is predicted to have warmer sea temperatures, forecasters say, and we are likely to have an El Niño pattern.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, but much of the activity occurs from mid-August through early October. With the timing of the El Niño, that would make for fewer storms during the second-half of the season.
"Typically, El Niño creates stronger upper-level winds (wind shear) across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical storms to take shape," AccuWeather forecasters said. "With El Niño forecast to develop and strengthen throughout the summer and autumn, it is likely to translate to fewer storms during the second half of the hurricane season compared to the first half."
There's also an about 15 percent chance for a "Super El Niño," forecasters said. That would make for a sharp reduction in storm activity.
Ahead of the season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases its list of names that will be given to tropical storms and hurricanes.
The storm names for this year are:
NOAA has a list of six years of names, which are used in rotation and re-cycled every six years, so the 2023 list will be used again in 2029.
But, if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name for a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity, it is dropped from future lists.
In the event that more than twenty-one named tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic basin in a season, any additional storms will take names from an alternate list of names approved by the WMO.
The Trump administration has proposed slashing the agency’s budget by more than $1.1 billion, a 17 percent reduction overall, advocacy group Oceana said.
The Ocean Conservancy organization that the proposed cuts “could weaken the very systems Florida relies on to prepare for storms and protect communities.”
The organization added that this “could weaken hurricane forecasting, hinder red tide response, threaten Florida’s coastal economy and put communities at greater risk.”
Among the services and initiatives at-risk with these proposed cuts, are National Hurricane Center forecasting and storm-surge warnings, red tide and harmful algal bloom monitoring, Florida Sea Grant research and coastal extension programs, Fisheries science supporting the state’s fishing industry, marine mammal rescue efforts, and coral reef restoration and coastal habitat protection, Ocean Conservancy said.
Some of the best cruise deals in the Caribbean, and other areas prone to storms, can be scored by booking during hurricane season.
"Since many people don’t realize it’s possible to cruise during hurricane season safely, fewer people book cruises during peak hurricane months," according to Celebrity Cruises. "Cruise fares are often lower during this time as Caribbean hurricane season occurs just after the peak summer travel season ends."
And it could be safer aboard a cruise ship during a hurricane than one might think - even safer than being on land, Royal Caribbean's Chief Meteorologist Van Fleet said.
“A common misconception is that the open water is the most dangerous place to be in inclement weather. It’s actually the total opposite: If a storm is coming your way on land, you have fewer options: Your home is a potential target that can’t be moved. On a cruise ship, captains can sail out of the way quickly,” Fleet sai Having a dedicated meteorologist working with the teams on board to look at weather patterns and make real-time decisions makes all the difference, too, because we’re able to get in front of what’s developing and immediately communicate that to our crew and guests.
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