Tropical Storm Isaias developed early Wednesday in the southwest Gulf, off the coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche, forecasters said.
The system is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall Friday night along the U.S. central Gulf Coast, bringing flooding rain and high winds to the region, AccuWeather said. This would make it the latest first hurricane to form in over 100 years.
Landfall will happen somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the western Florida panhandle, with heavier and steadier rain near and north of the center, expanding inland to the north-northeast, AccuWeather said.
Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, said in a social media post that he expects landfall to happen late Friday night near Mobile Bay.
"Winds could reach Cat 3 strength early on Friday, but high shear should weaken the storm somewhat before it actually reaches the Alabama coastline," he wrote.
As for effects in Florida, "students of Florida State University and Florida A&M University could see gusty winds (possibly to nearly tropical storm force) but I don't think impacts in Tallahassee will be significant," Phillips wrote. "University of West Florida will be much closer. Parents of students there should listen to local officials and school administrators to decide what's best for their kids. It could get pretty nasty in Pensacola."
Meteorologist Matt Devitt, in a social media post, warned those in the central Gulf Coast, "Don't just focus on the center. This will likely be a lopsided and sheared storm at landfall, with most impacts near and especially east of the center…even out of the cone."
In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties on Tuesday night, before Isaias formed, warning that impacts from the storm could threaten portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend area.
The emergency declaration covers the following counties: Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Walton, Wakulla and Washington.
"This order ensures communities have the time and resources necessary to prepare for potential severe weather impacts to the Panhandle and Big Bend region of Florida," DeSantis said on X Tuesday evening.
Tropical Storm Isaias, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with higher gusts, was moving east-northeast at 8 mph as of Wednesday at 5 a.m., the National Hurricane Center said.
The system is expected to continue moving east-northeast throughout Wednesday, followed by a north-northeast turn on Thursday and Friday, NHC said.
It's forecast to pass north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday.
Isaias will rapidly strengthen over the next two days and is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday, NHC said.
The system is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across coastal areas of the Bay of Campeche, with isolated higher amounts possible in the state of Campeche and western Yucatan, through Thursday, forecasters said.
Starting Friday and through the weekend, Isaias is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 10 inches, along the U.S. Gulf Coast, from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, NHC said.
Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with some localized amounts up to 5 inches, are possible across much of the Southeast as far north as the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas, NHC said. Flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated river flooding, is possible.
Gusty winds are possible in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.
Surf swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting on Thursday, and spreading north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week, NHC said. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
"Another hazard from the storm will be the risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and waterspouts," AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "The bulk of the severe weather is likely near and east of the center, but that risk can extend for hundreds of miles to the east this weekend."
Much of the Florida peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, could see 2 to 4 inches of rain, as Isaias moves toward the Gulf Coast, according to the NHC rainfall forecast map.
There's a marginal risk of flash flooding for the bulk of the Florida peninsula with a slight threat to the Big Bend area and parts of the eastern panhandle, and a moderate risk of flash flooding for the western panhandle, according to the NHC's flash flooding/excessive rainfall outlook.
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