Experts Predict Above-Average Hurricane Season In Final Forecast

FORT COLLINS, CO — Experts at Colorado State University this week predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, citing record-warm sea surface temperatures as the primary reason.

In its final forecast released Thursday, the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicted 18 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends Nov. 30, according to a news release from the university. Peak storm season is Sept. 10, with Florida yet to see any tropical disturbances this season.

The newest prediction includes the five named storms that already formed this season and marked an increase from the 13 storms predicted in the team's initial forecast released in March.

"The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average," researchers stated in a release. "As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

The first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September, the National Hurricane Center says. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, with most storms forming between mid-August and mid-October.

Out of the 18 predicted storms, researchers said they expect nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. Researchers are also predicting 90 named storm days, 35 hurricane days and nine major hurricane days in the Atlantic basin.

Researchers also predicted a 48 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall on U.S. soil, compared with the historical average of 43 percent. Florida'seast coast has a 25 percent chance of experiencing a major hurricane, while the Gulf coast has a 31 percent chance, according to the forecast.

To compile the forecast, researchers use a combination of statistical models and four decades of historical data, including Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels, and more.

Despite the development of a robust El Niño, which tends to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, researchers said extremely warm Atlantic temperatures increase activity.

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"How these diametrically opposing factors interact will determine exactly how much activity occurs in 2023," researchers said.

Still, CSU's new forecast predicts the 2023 hurricane season will be about 130 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2022's hurricane activity was about 75 percent of the average season.

The 2022 season saw two major hurricanes, Fiona and Ian. Fiona was the first major hurricane that hit Puerto Rico and caused substantial flooding. Ian made landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, killing more than 150 people and causing $113 billion in damage.

Communities where dozens of residents drowned in storm surge as seawater swamped their vehicles or inundated their homes, NBC News said. Ian was one of the deadliest hurricanes to hit the U.S. in the past 20 years, the network said.

Florida District Medical Examiners reported 131 deaths attributed to Hurricane Ian.

See the full 2023 hurricane forecast online.