Hurricane Lee Could Make Landfall In New England At End Of Week

TAMPA, FL — Residents along the southeast Atlantic Coast should stay clear of the beaches this week as Hurricane Lee continues churning up the waters of the Atlantic Ocean, creating life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents. And far eastern New England to Atlantic Canada could face landfall from the storm at the end of the week.

AccuWeather forecasters have given an all-clear from the standpoint of a direct hit from Florida to North Carolina, which will prevent Lee's high winds and flooding rain from reaching areas recently hard-hit by Idalia. The storm is expected to briefly become a Category 4 again before it turns north.

The hurricane, currently a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with 120 mph maximum sustained winds, is predicted to remain off the eastern U.S. coast until it reaches New England or Atlantic Canada sometime on Friday, according to the 9 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

As Lee approaches, the jet stream will determine the extent of the direct impacts in the northeastern United States, AccuWeather.com said Monday.

If the jet stream swings eastward and off the Atlantic coast, it should help to protect the mid-Atlantic states from feeling direct rain and high winds from Lee, which would be pushed along and would avoid a direct hit on the U.S. but still would likely roll into Atlantic Canada.

However, if the jet stream hangs back, when combined with Lee's slow movement initially, the hurricane could be pulled in close to the U.S. by steering winds during the middle and latter part of next week. In that scenario, there is the risk of a landfall in eastern New England with widespread risks to lives and property.

Forecasters are studying primary impacts from Lee from southeastern Massachusetts on northeastward through Nova Scotia, areas of Newfoundland and Laborador.

Related:

• Hurricane Lee Drops To Category 3, FL Impact Monitored
• Hurricane Lee To Bring 'Life-Threatening' Conditions To FL, East Coast
• Hurricane Lee Likely To Be 'Extremely Dangerous Major' Storm: NHC
• Experts Predict Above-Average Hurricane Season In Final Forecast
• Hurricane Idalia Slams Into FL's Big Bend: 'Unprecedented Event'
• Never Been Through A Florida Hurricane? Here's What You Should Know
• Hurricane Lee Swells To Category 4 Storm, Still Intensifying: NHC

Hurricane Lee is currently located about 340 miles north of the Leeward Islands and 1,045 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and is moving at a much slower speed of 7 mph.

The NHC said that slow west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by midweek. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the next day or two but the hurricane is on track to pass over or near Bermuda.

Either way, the island will likely face damaging winds. Lee's hurricane-force winds extend 75 miles from the center of the hurricane, and tropical storm-force winds of up to 185 miles out from the eye.

Although the hurricane center has issued no warnings or watches, swells generated by Lee are already affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and Bermuda. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast as well, and these conditions are expected to spread north along much of the East Coast.

After becoming a monstrous Category 5 storm with 165 mph sustained winds, the most powerful hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Hurricane Lee dropped back to a major Category 3 storm by Friday evening.

In the meantime, the NHC is following Tropical Storm Margot, which is expected to become a hurricane by Monday night.

Tropical Storm Margot is now located 1,215 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands producing maximum sustained winds of 65 mph that extend 90 miles from the eye as it creeps north at 8 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic, according to the NHC.

Hurricane Season Forecast

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was Sept. 10, with most storms forming between mid-August and mid-October, according to the NHC

With three months remaining in the Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, the Atlantic basin has already generated two major hurricanes, Franklin and Idalia, with Lee becoming the season's third and most powerful hurricane.

In August, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center revised its predictions for the season due to the effects of El Niño on the Atlantic basin. The outlook now includes a 70 percent chance of 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 11 could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes.

Measuring Hurricane Winds On Saffir-Simpson Scale

Hurricanes are measured 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While the scale makes references to wind speed, it’s really concerned with the type of damage that winds at particular speeds will create – in other words, intensity, which is not always a direct link to wind speed.

Category 1: Sustained winds of 74-95 mph. “Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.” A Category 1 hurricane could destroy older mobile homes and damage newer ones and poorly built houses. Well-built homes could have damage to shingles, siding, gutters and soffit panels.

Category 2: Sustained winds of 96-110 mph. “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.”“Substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets.” Mobile homes built before 1994 will probably be destroyed, as will some newer ones, and some poorly built homes. Near total power loss expected.

Category 3: Sustained winds of 111-129 mph. “Devastating damage will occur.” Poorly built frame homes will be wrecked. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built homes will be damaged, older metal buildings will fail.

Category 4: Sustained winds of 130-156 mph. “Catastrophic damage will occur.”Well-built homes will lose or suffer damage to most of their roofs and exterior walls. Top floors of apartment buildings will be damaged, and fallen trees and wires will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.

Category 5: Sustained winds greater than 157 mph. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed with total roof failure and wall collapse. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.