Odds Of Tropical Storm Forming From Trough In Gulf Downgraded: NOAA

FLORIDA — A broad trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico has virtually no chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, said the National Hurricane Center in Miami in its Wednesday morning update.

Meteorologists at the center have been closely watching the trough since Monday, when there was a 10 to 30 percent chance of it developing into a tropical storm.

On Wednesday, the NHC reported that the weather disturbance now extends from the Florida Panhandle west-southwest along the northern Gulf coast, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land.

It is forecast to continue to drift north over land during the next few days, but the Weather Prediction Center said it has a near-zero chance of developing into a tropical storm during the next five days.

Nevertheless, said the NHC, heavy rains will pose a risk of flash flooding along portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days.

So far, the busy hurricane activity predicted for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has yet to materialize. However, residents shouldn't let down their guard yet, said Kenneth Graham, the former director of the NHC who became the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration assistant director for weather services and the 17th director of the National Weather Service last month.

Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year, which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season, Graham said during a webinar previewing the hurricane season.

NOAA's outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

Related stories:

• 2022 Hurricane Names List Released For Atlantic Season
• Above-Normal 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted By NOAA

With 70 percent confidence, NOAA is forecasting 14 to 21 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which six to 10 could become hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to six major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The increased activity anticipated this hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon, Graham said. An enhanced west African monsoon supports stronger African easterly waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes during most seasons.

Related: FL Could See Tropical Cyclone Develop From Trough In Gulf: NOAA