Severe Storms, Tornadoes in Tampa Bay's 2015-16 Winter Forecast

Winter is still a ways off, but forecasters say there’s no time like the present for Tampa Bay area residents to prepare for what could be on the way.

“As one of the strongest El Ninos in the last 50 to 60 years continues to develop, it’s likely that heavy rainfall and severe weather will take aim at the Southeast and Gulf Coast,” the AccuWeather Global Weather Center wrote in a media release.

Indeed, forecasters at the National Weather Service’s Ruskin office, agree there is a strong potential for a rough winter ahead for the Tampa Bay area.

“Generally, for Florida an El Nino winter means cooler than normal temperatures and wetter than normal (conditions),” said meteorologist Rick Davis of the National Weather Service.

The El Nino weather pattern arises when the sea surface temperatures rise in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and impact the northern hemisphere, Davis explained. When that happens, the southern branch of the Jetstream becomes more active. That enables systems to move across the Pacific, across the southern states, through the Gulf of Mexico and into Florida.

“Because the storm systems have a more southern latitude, they’re expected to produce more rain for us and then with that southern storm track more cold fronts (could move in), increasing the chances for severe weather,” Davis said.

Those increased chances for severe weather have AccuWeather forecasters saying Florida should prepare for a winter season of severe thunderstorms.

“Florida, in particular, may have a higher risk for tornadoes this season,” the AccuWeather release stated. “Overall, heavy rain will be widespread for the South. As the season progresses, additional rain on already saturated ground will increase the chances for flooding.”

And, while forecasters expect a cooler winter for Tampa Bay, Davis stresses that doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see more days down in the freezing range than normal.

El Nino conditions, Davis said, tend to produce a cloud cover that brings temperatures down. While cold fronts might move in, they may not really be “cold” so to say. The southern track storms wouldn’t start in Canada, which means blasts of arctic air wouldn’t be associated with every front to head our way.

That said, however, Davis added that it’s just “too early to tell on Oct. 8 how many freeze events we’re going to have.”

The National Weather Service has categorized this year’s El Nino as moderate to strong and it’s expected to continue to expand. AccuWeather says it’s one of the strong on record in the last few decades. El Nino conditions tend to arise every three to five years with some years producing stronger impacts than others.

While it is too early to tell for sure just how this winter will unfold in the Tampa Bay area, Davis urges residents to prepare for severe weather just in case.

“People always need to be prepared for weather events,” he said. “Something as simple as having a plan. If we’re expecting a tornado outbreak, the day before is (not the day to prepare).”

Davis also reminds Bay area residents that hurricane season is still very much in play. The season doesn’t end until Nov. 30 with the west coast of Florida experiencing the greatest chances for storms between September and October.

“It’s never too late to prepare for hurricane season,” he said. And, “certainly do prepare for the winter.”

To learn more about preparing for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, visit the National Weather Service online. The agency also offers lots of advice on how to prepare for hurricanes.

For an extended forecast for your neighborhood, visit your local Patch’s homepage.

Graphic courtesy of AccuWeather