FL Statewide Emergency As Tropical Storm Ian Expected To Strengthen

FLORIDA — The entire state of Florida is now under a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Ian continues to gain strength over the Caribbean on its slow churn toward the state. Forecast models show landfall could be anywhere from Fort Myers to the Panhandle next week, but did shift to the west Saturday.

Gov. Ron DeSantis had previously declared a state of emergency for 24 counties, but amended that to encompass all of Florida. The storm is expected to bring torrential rain, flash flooding and hurricane-strength wind to the state next week.

“This storm has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane and we encourage all Floridians to make their preparations,” DeSantis said in a statement. “We are coordinating with all state and local government partners to track potential impacts of this storm.”

The governor and meteorologists urged residents to get the supplies they need to protect their homes and endure power outages.

The National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. Saturday update predicts the storm to reach the Tampa Bay region Thursday afternoon. But experts say that a better forecast of Ian's track isn't possible until two or three days before it reaches land.

Regardless of Ian’s exact track, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week, the NHC said. Residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

Significant strengthening is forecast in the next few days, the NHC said. Ian is expected to become a hurricane by late Sunday and a major hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Related: How To Prepare Your Home, Family For Tropical Storm Ian

"Because of very warm waters and a forecast minimal amount of disruptive winds, there is the potential for the system to undergo rapid strengthening anytime from this weekend to midweek," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

Ian is the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and seems likely to be the first storm to reach the U.S. this year.

With sustained winds of 45 mph, Tropical Storm Ian was about 255 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, late Saturday afternoon. It was moving to the west at 16 mph in the Caribbean, the NHC said.

The storm is expected to continue to strengthen this weekend as it passes south of Jamaica. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, while a hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman.

John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist with National Hurricane Center in Miami, said it is currently unclear where Ian will hit hardest in Florida and said residents should begin preparing for the storm, including gathering supplies for potential power outages.

“Too soon to say if it’s going to be a southeast Florida problem or a central Florida problem or just the entire state,” Cangialosi told the Associated Press. “So at this point, really the right message for those living in Florida is that you have to watch forecasts and get ready and prepare yourself for potential impact from this tropical system.”

The storm is not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening, and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico while approaching the west coast of Florida, the NHC said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday afternoon declared a state of emergency for 24 counties in the path of the storm. The NHC said Ian could become one of the most significant storms of the Atlantic hurricane season.

“This storm has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane and we encourage all Floridians to make their preparations," DeSantis said. "We are coordinating with all state and local government partners to track potential impacts of this storm.”

Executive Order 22-218 allows state emergency officials to coordinate response to the storm. The governor also requested a federal pre-landfall emergency declaration in anticipation of impacts from the storm. Under this emergency order, members of the Florida National Guard will be activated and on standby.

Floridians should prepare their emergency supply kit is ready and stocked with food, water, and medicine, DeSantis said.

To find resources to help you prepare for the storm, visit floridadisaster.org/planprepare.

Because of the potential for dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, strong winds, flash flooding, and the potential for isolated tornadoes, a state of emergency is in place for these counties:

• Brevard
• Broward
• Charlotte
• Collier
• DeSoto
• Glades
• Hardee
• Hendry
• Highlands
• Hillsborough
• Indian River
• Lee
• Manatee
• Martin
• Miami-Dade
• Monroe
• Okeechobee
• Osceola
• Palm Beach
• Pasco
• Pinellas
• Polk
• Sarasota
• St. Lucie

"Now is NOT the time to freak out. It IS the time to prepare, ready yourselves and pay close attention to future advisories," WFTS Tampa meteorologist Denis Phillips tweeted Friday morning.

If the storm continues on a path that brings it to the Tampa area, Phillips said the impact would similar to Hurricane Irma in 2017.

The National Weather Service said Irma was a Category 5 storm as it slammed into Cuba, was a Category 4 storm when it reached the Florida Keys, and had dropped to a Category 3 hurricane as it swept to the east of Tampa Bay.

This increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic comes after a relatively inactive August. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and September through November are typically the most active months.

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Forecasters at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center predicted an active hurricane center earlier this year. Forecasters said the ongoing La Niña, in addition to above-average ocean temperatures, signals a 65 percent chance the 2022 hurricane season will be above normal.

They predicted 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, anywhere from six to 10 of the storms could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher.

Forecasters predicted this year's season will spawn anywhere from three to six major hurricanes rated a category 3 or higher during the season's most active months — September to November.