FL Residents Need To Watch The Path Of Tropical Disturbance, Forecasters Said

FLORIDA — The National Hurricane Center and Florida emergency management centers are keeping a close eye on a tropical storm that has the potential to become one of the most significant storms of the Atlantic hurricane season and could impact Florida next week.

"This is the most significant threat for the U.S. mainland we've had this hurricane season," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said Thursday.

The potential tropical storm, now located north of Venezuela, is currently small but has a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, according to the NHC.

If it develops into a named tropical storm, the next two names on the list of 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclones are Hermine and Ian.

"At this early stage, U.S. interests from Miami to New Orleans should closely watch the evolution of this system," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

AccuWeather forecasters expect the system to reach major hurricane intensity and urge residents in the southeastern U.S. to stay tuned to the latest developments. Should the storm manage to reach the Florida Peninsula, there may be an avenue to move northward along the Atlantic Seaboard.

The potential tropical storm comes on the heels of Hurricane Fiona, which pummeled Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic Monday as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds Monday, and then headed to the Turks and Caicos Tuesday as a Category 3 hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center said the outer bands of Fiona have now reached Bermuda. Hurricane conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Thursday night and continuing Friday morning, bringing impacts from wind, storm surge and heavy rainfall.

Another storm system that formed over the middle of the Atlantic on Tuesday as Tropical Storm 8 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gaston on Tuesday afternoon. However, Gaston is not expected to be a threat to the Caribbean or United States, but could pose trouble for the Azores, AccuWeather.com said.

Forecasters are also monitoring a healthy tropical wave that developed over western Africa Tuesday. As this system reaches the Atlantic and enters into an atmosphere that will be favorable for development, forecasters said it could become more organized.

This increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic comes after a relatively inactive August. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and September through November are typically the most active months.

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If tropical disturbance north of Venezuela continues to develop into a hurricane, it will be the fourth hurricane of this season, following Hurricane Danielle, which peaked over the open waters of the North Atlantic in early September, Earl, which closely followed Danielle in the open waters of the North Atlantic, becoming a Category 2 hurricane, and Fiona this week.

Forecasters at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center predicted an active hurricane center earlier this year. Forecasters said the ongoing La Niña, in addition to above-average ocean temperatures, signals a 65 percent chance the 2022 hurricane season will be above normal.

They predicted 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, anywhere from six to 10 of the storms could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher.

Forecasters predicted this year's season will spawn anywhere from three to six major hurricanes rated a category 3 or higher during the season's most active months — September to November.